To prepare for low-probability, high-impact events, leaders should resist the immediate urge to create action plans. Instead, they must first creatively explore "good, bad, and ugly" scenarios without the pressure for an immediate, concrete solution. This exploration phase is crucial for resilience.

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When facing ambiguity, the best strategy is not to wait for perfect information but to engage in "sense-making." This involves taking small, strategic actions, gathering data from them, and progressively building an understanding of the situation, rather than being paralyzed by analysis.

The best leaders act on incomplete information, understanding that 100% certainty is a myth that only exists in hindsight. The inability to decide amid ambiguity—choosing inaction—is a greater failure than making the wrong call.

Described as "absolutely unflappable," CMO Laura Kneebush reveals her method is a deliberate process, not just a personality trait. When faced with a crisis, she intentionally pauses, listens to understand all perspectives, thinks about the big picture, and only then creates a path forward.

Instead of defaulting to skepticism and looking for reasons why something won't work, the most productive starting point is to imagine how big and impactful a new idea could become. After exploring the optimistic case, you can then systematically address and mitigate the risks.

Adaptable organizations are built on curiosity. This is nurtured not by formal courses, but by leaders encouraging small, daily acts of connecting disparate ideas (e.g., "What did you see this weekend and how can we apply it?"). This builds the collective "mental muscle" for navigating disruption.

Beyond 'fight or flight,' Mercy Corps' CEO identifies a third, more dangerous crisis response: 'freeze.' She argues that holding still or failing to adapt guarantees a slow demise. For leaders facing existential threats, radical rethinking is the only viable path forward, even when the future is uncertain.

Before starting a project, ask the team to imagine it has failed and write a story explaining why. This exercise in 'time travel' bypasses optimism bias and surfaces critical operational risks, resource gaps, and flawed assumptions that would otherwise be missed until it's too late.

Success at the leadership level requires a developed tolerance for pressure and uncertainty—a skill the CEO calls a 'stomach' for it. This resilience is a distinct capability, and its absence can cause even the most intelligent and talented individuals to fail under pressure, making it a crucial trait for high-stakes roles.

When strategic direction is unclear due to leadership changes, waiting for clarity leads to stagnation. The better approach is to create a draft plan with the explicit understanding it may be discarded. This provides a starting point for new leadership and maintains team momentum, so long as you are psychologically prepared to pivot.

In volatile times, the instinct is to act decisively and quickly. Brené Brown argues the more effective approach is to pause, assess the situation holistically (like a soccer player controlling the ball), and then make a strategic move. This prevents reactive, scarcity-driven decisions that often backfire.

Leaders Must 'Wallow in Ambiguity' Before Planning for Black Swan Events | RiffOn