The US raid to capture Venezuela's president has sparked talk within Iran's elite about a similar "solution": removing Supreme Leader Khamenei to appease protestors and preserve the system, rather than allowing it to collapse entirely under external and internal pressure.

Meaningful reform in Iran is unlikely until the succession of the 86-year-old Supreme Leader is resolved. Deep uncertainty over who will hold power paralyzes the political system, preventing any faction from making significant changes and forcing the country into a holding pattern until the leadership transition occurs.

The IRGC increasingly wields the true power in Iran, while the Supreme Leader's role is becoming more symbolic. He serves as a "sacred totem" and a "lightning rod for criticism" but is ultimately a facilitator of IRGC influence rather than a check on its power.

Iran is at a critical inflection point as its aging and ill Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has no clear successor. The constitutional requirements for the role were tailored specifically for his predecessor, Khomeini. With no one in the wings who meets the criteria, the country faces significant instability upon his death.

The selection of Mojtaba Khamenei is meant to project stability. However, it's unpopular even among the regime's base, who view it as a return to the monarchy they overthrew in 1979, creating significant internal political risk.

While Mojtaba Khamenei is now supreme leader, his actual control is questionable. Iran is navigating a wartime transition with leaders in hiding, allowing factions like the Revolutionary Guard to vie for influence and pull the strings, suggesting a period of fragmented authority.

Beyond being the IRGC's favored candidate, Mojtaba Khamenei's selection was pragmatic. As his father's right-hand man, he intimately understands the complex business and institutional mechanics of the Supreme Leader's office, allowing him to "hit the ground running" during a crisis.

The Islamic regime's support base is limited to an aging demographic that participated in or benefited from the 1979 revolution. The country's overwhelmingly young population, a result of a post-revolution population boom, bears the brunt of the regime's failures and is staunchly opposed to it.

The Iranian populace is exhausted with theocratic rule after five decades. Any future authoritarian leader will likely be a product of the intelligence or security services, appealing to nationalism rather than revolutionary ideology. The era of the turban-wearing ruler is over.