Despite widespread internal protests and instability, history shows that an external attack is one of the few things that can unify the Iranian population. A potential Israeli strike, meant to weaken the regime, could backfire by creating a 'rally 'round the flag' effect that shores up support for the Ayatollah.
Iran is at a critical inflection point as its aging and ill Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has no clear successor. The constitutional requirements for the role were tailored specifically for his predecessor, Khomeini. With no one in the wings who meets the criteria, the country faces significant instability upon his death.
The current conception of the defense industrial base focuses on large primes like L3 and General Atomics. However, 98% of US manufacturing is done by small businesses that are not integrated into the defense supply chain. A key investment would be creating a pathway to bring these smaller, agile companies into the fold.
When a prime contractor like RTX uses cash for stock buybacks instead of M&A, it's a powerful market signal. It suggests they see 'dead ends' and 'pure vapor' among defense tech startups, lacking confidence in their IP and viability. This indicates a suppressed or unhealthy innovation ecosystem.
While Venezuela is a minor oil supplier to China, Iran is a substantial source of crude and heavy oil used for infrastructure projects like asphalt. A regime change in Iran could lead to the country selling its oil to the West instead of China, creating a significant economic and geopolitical destabilization for Beijing.
A singular, massive cash infusion into the defense budget encourages buying more of today's systems, filling order books for weapons with built-in obsolescence. This approach creates a short-term 'sugar high' but fails to fund the adaptive industrial infrastructure needed for future conflicts, ultimately leading to a less capable force.
When purchasing a new ship or aircraft, the initial price tag is deceptive. The 'fully burdened cost' includes long-term expenses for crewing, training, support, and maintenance. A one-time budget increase doesn't cover this tail, forcing the military to retire platforms early and resulting in no net growth of the force.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) isn't funded by the state budget. It operates a global network of front companies for construction and other projects, laundering money to create a self-sustaining financial ecosystem. If the regime collapses, the IRGC would likely persist as a heavily-armed mafia with international criminal ties.
Executive Orders (EOs) primarily guide how the executive branch interprets and enforces existing laws; they cannot create new ones. For an EO to have staying power, the administration must embody it in departmental regulations and processes. Without congressional action, EOs are often 'more flash than bank' and don't drive behavior outside the administration.