Interim President Delcy Rodriguez's authority stems from her unique ability to engage with international actors like the U.S., a skill her powerful military rivals lack. This makes her both indispensable and vulnerable within the regime.
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The Trump administration is depicted as ignoring Venezuela's legitimately elected opposition leader and instead choosing to work with the former vice president. This suggests a strategy prioritizing controllable stability with a regime figure over supporting a democratically elected but potentially less predictable leader.
According to a former U.S. negotiator, Nicolás Maduro's personality is a key factor in diplomacy. His thin skin and brittle ego mean he will reject any proposal, even a beneficial one, if he perceives it as being forced upon him, making traditional pressure tactics ineffective.
Despite the public focus on oil, the primary goal of removing Maduro was likely to demonstrate U.S. primacy in the Western Hemisphere. The action serves as a strong signal that the U.S. is willing to act aggressively to enforce its influence in the region.
Venezuela's remaining leadership can adopt a strategy of "playing for time." By appearing cooperative while delaying substantive changes, they can wait for events like the US midterms to increase domestic political pressure on the administration, making sustained intervention unpopular and difficult to maintain. The weaker state's best defense is the superpower's internal clock.
The U.S. strategy appears to be maintaining a weakened Chavista regime to ensure stability and access to oil, effectively turning Venezuela into a resource colony without genuine political change for its people.
The U.S. intervention in Venezuela demonstrates its willingness to act decisively in the Western hemisphere. This display of power provides the U.S. with increased leverage in USMCA trade negotiations, enabling it to push Mexico harder on limiting Chinese investment and influence.
Knowing they cannot win a conventional war, Venezuela's military doctrine relies on asymmetrical warfare. Their key leverage is the credible threat to unleash chaos via guerrillas and gangs, making the country ungovernable for any occupying force.
The US action to remove Maduro was not a traditional regime change. The goal was to eliminate the leader personally while leaving his party and government apparatus largely intact, suggesting a strategic choice to avoid the instability of a full power vacuum.
By leaving the existing Chavista power structure largely intact after removing Maduro, the U.S. is applying a key lesson from Iraq: avoiding a power vacuum and the chaos of de-Ba'athification is paramount for stability.
The Rodriguez siblings, key figures in the Chavista regime, harbor deep-seated animosity toward the West. A former U.S. official believes this stems from their father being tortured to death by a previous government, an event they attribute to imperialist influence.