The U.S. strategy appears to be maintaining a weakened Chavista regime to ensure stability and access to oil, effectively turning Venezuela into a resource colony without genuine political change for its people.
The ability for Venezuelans to flee crises has diminished. Neighboring countries are less welcoming and the remaining population is often too impoverished to emigrate. This removes a key pressure release valve, intensifying future domestic instability.
Contrary to popular belief, China's influence in Venezuela is primarily economic, not strategic. They are a key consumer of oil but do not control the industry or the government. Russia, in fact, has a more embedded military and strategic presence in the country.
Knowing they cannot win a conventional war, Venezuela's military doctrine relies on asymmetrical warfare. Their key leverage is the credible threat to unleash chaos via guerrillas and gangs, making the country ungovernable for any occupying force.
By leaving the existing Chavista power structure largely intact after removing Maduro, the U.S. is applying a key lesson from Iraq: avoiding a power vacuum and the chaos of de-Ba'athification is paramount for stability.
The Rodriguez siblings, key figures in the Chavista regime, harbor deep-seated animosity toward the West. A former U.S. official believes this stems from their father being tortured to death by a previous government, an event they attribute to imperialist influence.
The "narco-state" narrative is misleading. While officials profit from drug trafficking, the state's primary income is oil. Disrupting the drug trade angers corrupt generals but doesn't threaten the government's core financial stability.
Contrary to assumptions, oil majors are cautious about re-entering Venezuela. They worry about a lack of legal certainty and the risk that any deals could be undone and heavily scrutinized by a future U.S. administration, making the investment too risky.
Interim President Delcy Rodriguez's authority stems from her unique ability to engage with international actors like the U.S., a skill her powerful military rivals lack. This makes her both indispensable and vulnerable within the regime.
A former NSC official, despite decades of experience, was "blown away" by the U.S. special forces operation to capture Maduro. He had previously concluded such a raid in a dense, hostile urban environment was too risky, underscoring the exceptional capabilities of U.S. forces.
A former NSC official reflects that the U.S. missed a key window of opportunity after Hugo Chavez's death. By choosing to "manage" the situation rather than applying strong pressure on a then-unpopular Nicolas Maduro, the U.S. lost a chance to shape a different outcome.
According to a former U.S. negotiator, Nicolás Maduro's personality is a key factor in diplomacy. His thin skin and brittle ego mean he will reject any proposal, even a beneficial one, if he perceives it as being forced upon him, making traditional pressure tactics ineffective.