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  1. Thoughts on the Market
  2. How Venezuela Events Could Affect Markets and Policy
How Venezuela Events Could Affect Markets and Policy

How Venezuela Events Could Affect Markets and Policy

Thoughts on the Market · Jan 6, 2026

U.S. intervention in Venezuela has minimal short-term oil impact but signals a shift in policy, boosting sovereign bonds and regional risk.

U.S. Venezuelan Action Gives It Leverage to Pressure Mexico on China in Trade Talks

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela demonstrates its willingness to act decisively in the Western hemisphere. This display of power provides the U.S. with increased leverage in USMCA trade negotiations, enabling it to push Mexico harder on limiting Chinese investment and influence.

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How Venezuela Events Could Affect Markets and Policy

Thoughts on the Market·a month ago

U.S. Executive Actions Abroad Signal Faster, Unilateral Domestic Policy, Increasing Investor Risk

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela reflects a broader domestic trend of fast, unilateral policymaking via executive authority. This pattern bypasses congressional consensus-building, heightening policy uncertainty and systemic risk premiums for investors across all sectors.

How Venezuela Events Could Affect Markets and Policy thumbnail

How Venezuela Events Could Affect Markets and Policy

Thoughts on the Market·a month ago

Venezuela's Massive Oil Reserves Deceive; Its Low Production Mutes Market Impact

Despite holding the world's largest oil reserves (17%), Venezuela's contribution to global production is minimal (<1%). This critical gap between reserves and output explains why major geopolitical events in the country have little immediate impact on global oil supply or prices.

How Venezuela Events Could Affect Markets and Policy thumbnail

How Venezuela Events Could Affect Markets and Policy

Thoughts on the Market·a month ago