The failure to militarily secure the Strait of Hormuz is a major strategic concession. It demonstrates a critical vulnerability and effectively hands Iran control over a global economic chokepoint, allowing them to wield immense leverage over international trade.

While the US and allies can militarily secure convoys through the Strait of Hormuz, this is not a panacea. This action would only restore a fraction of normal shipping volume (est. 20%) and will not immediately restore the trust needed from commercial shipping and insurance companies to resume full operations.

The strategy of capturing Iran's main oil terminal, Kharg Island, to gain leverage is misguided. Iran has developed alternative export routes, including other ports, rail links, and sophisticated smuggling networks. The regime would rather endure financial pain than capitulate to foreign invasion.

A plan to seize Iran's Kharg Island ignores immense logistical challenges and underestimates Iranian resolve. Rather than compelling Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, this telegraphed move would likely create a catastrophic hostage situation for US forces.

Iran's victory condition isn't military dominance but strategic disruption. By using asymmetric warfare—mines, drones, and missiles—to create chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, it can halt the flow of oil. This cracks the petrodollar system and achieves its primary geopolitical objective without needing to defeat the US Navy in a conventional battle.

Initial military actions, like successful bombings, can feel like victories. However, they often fail to solve the core political issue, trapping leaders into escalating the conflict further to achieve the original strategic goal, as they don't want to accept failure.

Military strikes against Iranian assets are insufficient for the US to claim victory. The conflict's true endgame hinges on controlling maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, as this economic chokepoint represents Iran's ultimate leverage and prevents a US declaration of success.

Seizing an island to control oil exports creates a tactical vulnerability. This forces an expansion to the coast, then the mountains, mirroring how a small deployment in Vietnam escalated into a full-scale ground war.

The strategy of continuing a war of attrition to degrade Iran's military capabilities has a critical flaw. Even if missile launches are reduced by over 90%, Iran only needs to maintain a very small volume of attacks on the Strait of Hormuz to effectively keep the vital waterway closed, thereby nullifying the primary objective of the US and its allies.