Alexander Stubb posits that recent US foreign policy is uniquely driven by a specific "MAGA" ideology that is fundamentally anti-international order and condescending towards liberal Europe. Understanding this ideological root, beyond just transactional policy, is crucial for allies navigating the relationship with Washington.
Unlike predecessors who framed foreign policy within a broader worldview (e.g., democracy promotion), Trump's approach is purely transactional and theatrical. It lacks a moral or ideological justification, instead focusing on demanding tribute, like oil from Venezuela, to appeal to a nationalist base without building a durable governing coalition.
Trump's rhetoric about acquiring Greenland "the easy way or the hard way" is not just bluster. It's part of a broader pattern of unilateral action that prioritizes American strategic interests above all else, even at the cost of alienating key allies and potentially fracturing foundational alliances like NATO.
A new US national security document signals a radical foreign policy shift. It explicitly states the US will support "right wing, far right and populist right parties" in Europe that align with its anti-immigration stance, effectively interfering in the domestic politics of allied nations to promote a "MAGA like" Europe.
The long-standing Monroe Doctrine is being superseded by a "Trump Doctrine." This new worldview prioritizes hemispheric dominance, unilateralism, and proactive intervention for specific economic and security interests (e.g., controlling immigration, securing vital assets), fundamentally changing how America views its sphere of influence.
The US's global power is eroding due to debt and inflation. Trump's aggressive foreign policy is not random; it's a high-risk strategy to press America's current advantage and re-establish dominance before rivals like China can take over. The only alternative is accepting a managed decline.
Europe faces a dual threat: an aggressive Russia waging hybrid warfare on its eastern flank, and a Trump-led America that actively prefers a fragmented, weaker Europe. A disunified EU allows the U.S. to cut more favorable bilateral deals, leaving Europe vulnerable from both sides without its traditional transatlantic security guarantee.
Trump is not an isolated phenomenon but a vessel for a broader, international right-wing movement. His talking points on immigration and 'special operations' mirror the language used by authoritarians like Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Vladimir Putin in Russia. This global playbook is tested in 'laboratories of autocracy' worldwide before being deployed in the U.S.
The administration's aggressive, unilateral actions are pushing European nations toward strategic autonomy rather than cooperation. This alienates key partners and fundamentally undermines the 'Allied Scale' strategy of building a collective economic bloc to counter adversaries like China.
Contrary to the isolationist interpretation, "America First" under Trump is a doctrine of pragmatic, and often aggressive, foreign intervention. It justifies actions like controlling another country's resources if they are deemed critical to American national security or economic stability.
The administration's aggressive posture in Latin America is framed not by traditional security interests but by a desire to curb migration. This reflects a core white nationalist belief that demographic shifts pose an existential threat to the US, making immigration control a primary national security objective, viewing Venezuela as an exporter of people, not oil.