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  1. Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
  2. Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell
Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory · Jan 14, 2026

Analyzing global unrest: Iran's deadly protests, Minnesota's ICE clashes, and the political battle between Trump's DOJ and Fed Chair Powell.

Trump's "America First" Is Aggressive Interventionism for US Interests, Not Isolationism

Contrary to the isolationist interpretation, "America First" under Trump is a doctrine of pragmatic, and often aggressive, foreign intervention. It justifies actions like controlling another country's resources if they are deemed critical to American national security or economic stability.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago

Effective Protesters Fight in Court, Not on the Street, by Complying During Arrest

There is a strategic distinction between the act of protest and the act of being arrested. A savvy protester understands they are crossing a legal line but complies immediately with law enforcement to avoid violence. This preserves their safety and allows them to make their case in the proper venue: court.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago

Governments Form to Monopolize Violence for Protection But Naturally Tend Towards Tyranny

Governments originate from a collective need to organize and control violence for defense. However, this very concentration of power is predisposed to become oppressive, reflecting a cyclical pattern in human history where freedom is lost to tyranny, regained, and then threatened once again.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago

Nation-Building After Repression Is a Decade-Long Struggle Complicated by Social Media

Rebuilding a nation after decades of repressive rule is a monumental task, often taking a decade or more. In the modern era, social media exacerbates the challenge by amplifying divisive voices and making the national consensus required for a stable transition nearly impossible to achieve.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago

Information Blackouts During Protests Signal a Government's Desperation to Hide Atrocities

When a government cuts off internet and phone lines during massive protests, as seen in Iran, it's a clear indicator they are trying to conceal the severity of their response from the world. This tactic undermines their own claims of control and reveals a deep fear of international scrutiny.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago

Reject Binary Thinking to Analyze Complex Situations and Avoid Emotional Decision Traps

Most people make poor decisions because they are trapped by emotions and view the world in simple binaries. A better approach is to map a situation's full complexity, understand its trade-offs, and recognize where others are getting stuck in their feelings, thus avoiding those same traps.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago

A Leader's Perception of Allied Betrayal Can Justify Abandoning Decades of Foreign Policy

If a leader concludes that historic allies are acting against their nation's interests (e.g., prolonging a war), they may see those alliances as effectively void. This perception of betrayal becomes the internal justification for dramatic, unilateral actions like dismantling NATO or seizing strategic assets.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago

The US National Debt's 2026 "Refinancing Wall" Forces the Federal Reserve to Lower Rates

The Federal Reserve faces "fiscal dominance," where government debt dictates monetary policy. With a massive amount of US debt maturing in 2026, the Fed will be forced to lower interest rates to make refinancing manageable, regardless of other economic indicators. The alternative is national insolvency.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago

Ego-Driven "Pissing Contests" Between Leaders like Trump and Powell Create Political Dysfunction

Much of the public conflict between powerful leaders isn't about substantive policy differences but about ego. The desire to avoid looking weak or like they are capitulating leads to political theater that prevents rational cooperation, even when both sides know the eventual outcome is inevitable.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago

Trump's Push for Greenland Signals a New Era of Aggressive American Unilateralism

Trump's rhetoric about acquiring Greenland "the easy way or the hard way" is not just bluster. It's part of a broader pattern of unilateral action that prioritizes American strategic interests above all else, even at the cost of alienating key allies and potentially fracturing foundational alliances like NATO.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago

Lowering Interest Rates to Service Debt Creates a "K-Shaped" Economy Benefiting the Rich

While necessary to refinance national debt, lowering interest rates has a severe side effect: it fuels a "K-shaped" economy. The resulting inflation enriches those who own assets like stocks and real estate while simultaneously punishing wage earners and savers, thus widening the wealth gap.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago

True Liberty Means Accepting Societal Chaos Over Authoritarian Stability That Kills Millions

A core philosophical choice exists between authoritarian stability, which can lead to mass death (e.g., Mao's China), and individual freedom, which can result in societal mistakes and chaos. The speaker champions the latter, arguing that the cost of freedom is always worth paying compared to state-sanctioned oppression.

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell thumbnail

Global Unrest: Iran Deaths, ICE Confrontations in Minnesota, and DOJ Eyes Jerome Powell

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·a month ago