The US's global power is eroding due to debt and inflation. Trump's aggressive foreign policy is not random; it's a high-risk strategy to press America's current advantage and re-establish dominance before rivals like China can take over. The only alternative is accepting a managed decline.
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Under Trump, the primary tool for projecting U.S. power is shifting from economic instruments like tariffs to direct military, intelligence, and cyber capabilities. This "Donroe Doctrine" leverages America's asymmetrical advantages in these areas, especially in its hemisphere, to achieve foreign policy wins without relying on economic coercion.
A nation that can no longer get cooperation through seduction and shared values must resort to coercion. Trump's proposed $1.5 trillion military budget is a symptom of this decline, reflecting an empire that must use force or the threat of it to enforce its will on the world stage.
The primary risk for the U.S. is not the inevitable decline of the dollar's dominance, which could rebalance the economy. The danger lies in trying to fight this trend, leading to a disorderly and painful collapse rather than a graceful, managed transition from a position of strength.
Trump's 'hokey pokey' with tariffs and threats isn't indecisiveness but a consistent strategy: make an agreement, threaten a severe and immediate penalty for breaking it, and actually follow through. This makes his threats credible and functions as a powerful deterrent that administrations lacking his perceived volatility cannot replicate.
The long-standing Monroe Doctrine is being superseded by a "Trump Doctrine." This new worldview prioritizes hemispheric dominance, unilateralism, and proactive intervention for specific economic and security interests (e.g., controlling immigration, securing vital assets), fundamentally changing how America views its sphere of influence.
The US military operation in Venezuela is interpreted as a display of global military dominance aimed at China and Russia. This action suggests a strategic pivot towards becoming a global empire rather than retreating to a regional, isolationist Monroe Doctrine.
The U.S. government is actively promoting stablecoins and U.S.-based AI to extend its global influence. This strategy shifts from projecting power through military presence to technological and financial dominance, ensuring the dollar and American culture remain central to the global system.
Contrary to the isolationist interpretation, "America First" under Trump is a doctrine of pragmatic, and often aggressive, foreign intervention. It justifies actions like controlling another country's resources if they are deemed critical to American national security or economic stability.
A historical indicator of a superpower's decline is when its spending on debt servicing surpasses its military budget. The US crossed this threshold a few years ago, while China is massively increasing military spending. This economic framework offers a stark, quantitative lens through which to view the long-term power shift between the two nations.
The aggressive, go-it-alone tactics of the 'America First' doctrine alienate both allies and adversaries. This pushes them to build alternative payment systems and trade alliances, speeding up the very de-dollarization and decline in U.S. influence that the strategy aims to prevent.