Alexander Stubb argues the world order isn't breaking but evolving. His confidence stems from the protective power of international institutions like the EU, which can counter threats like tariffs and secure trade deals. This contrasts with more alarmist views that see the current instability as a complete system breakdown.
To manage global shifts, Alexander Stubb advocates for reforming institutions like the UN Security Council to give rising nations more power. This strategy aims to secure their buy-in for a rules-based system, arguing it's more stable than building separate alliances of middle powers outside of existing frameworks.
Alexander Stubb posits that recent US foreign policy is uniquely driven by a specific "MAGA" ideology that is fundamentally anti-international order and condescending towards liberal Europe. Understanding this ideological root, beyond just transactional policy, is crucial for allies navigating the relationship with Washington.
During the Greenland crisis, Europe employed a two-pronged strategy against Trump's threats. While some leaders like Alexander Stubb pursued de-escalation, others subtly signaled Europe's formidable economic power—a "bazooka" in trade and finance—to create leverage and coerce a non-military resolution.
Alexander Stubb outlines a threefold failure for Putin: strategically, he pushed Finland into NATO; militarily, he’s achieved minimal gains at catastrophic cost (e.g., 34,000 Russian soldiers killed in Dec.); and economically, Russia is crippled. Putin continues the war not to win, but to avoid the domestic fallout of admitting defeat.
President Stubb uses Finland's peace with the USSR as a framework. Finland lost territory but preserved its nationhood. He argues Ukraine can secure an even better outcome through a peace deal: EU membership, massive reconstruction aid, and US security guarantees—a strategic victory that transcends battlefield lines.
Finland's president reveals that direct texting with counterparts like Donald Trump has become a key diplomatic tool. It allows for rapid information sharing, giving smaller nations influence. This creates a faster, more personal diplomatic web, but it is also fraught with risk, as informality can lead to public leaks and misinterpretations.
Finland's president explains that the US can entertain a "multipolar" world of transactional deals because of its immense power. In contrast, smaller nations like Finland depend on a "multilateral," rules-based order for their security and prosperity. For them, multilateralism is not a choice but a geopolitical necessity.
President Stubb observes that China, initially "baffled" by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has transitioned to a position of dominance. Russia is now in a "vassal type of a relationship," completely dependent on China for financial support and dual-use materials, fundamentally altering the power dynamic between the two nations.
The future world order hinges on the alignment of the Global South. Alexander Stubb argues that Western powers must use "values-based realism" and "dignified foreign policy" to win over key nations like India, Brazil, and South Africa to a rules-based system, as they are the decisive players in the struggle.