The US executive branch increasingly initiates military action by citing inherent commander-in-chief powers, sidestepping the constitutional requirement for Congress to declare war. This shift, exemplified by the Venezuela operation, marks a 'third founding' of the American republic where historical checks and balances on war-making are now considered quaint.
In the current media landscape, the political impact of military casualties depends on their virality. A non-visual event described in a traditional news article lacks the resonance of a graphic video shared on platforms like TikTok. This creates a grim calculus where policy is only influenced by losses that are visually shocking and widely shared.
Executing complex military operations publicly reveals sensitive tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs). Adversaries like Russia and China study these events to deconstruct US capabilities, from mission sequencing to electronic warfare. This exposure of the 'revolver's shots' depletes the element of surprise for future, more critical conflicts.
The administration's aggressive posture in Latin America is framed not by traditional security interests but by a desire to curb migration. This reflects a core white nationalist belief that demographic shifts pose an existential threat to the US, making immigration control a primary national security objective, viewing Venezuela as an exporter of people, not oil.
The US has established a precedent of using military force to apprehend fugitives abroad based on domestic legal actions, as seen with Noriega in 1989 and Maduro now. This practice blurs the line between law enforcement and an act of war, creating a thin legal justification for military intervention without traditional congressional or international approval.
Authoritarian leaders who publicly mock or dismiss threats risk triggering a military response driven by personal pride. Venezuelan President Maduro's televised dancing was reportedly perceived by the Trump administration as calling their bluff, demonstrating how avoiding the appearance of being a 'chump' can become a primary motivator for military action.
The successful removal of Maduro is a significant failure for Cuban intelligence services, which have a long history of protecting allied regimes in Latin America. For decades, Cuba has 'punched above its weight,' providing a security shield to leaders like Maduro. This event raises questions about the decline of their once-feared capabilities.
The U.S. operation to capture Maduro serves as a real-world case study for China's potential 'decapitation' strike against Taiwan. China has already rehearsed such scenarios in mock-ups of Taipei's presidential palace. This event demonstrates the feasibility of a quick, surgical strike, which is more aligned with the CCP's goals than a costly amphibious invasion.