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Unlike an internally-led transition, the US government is 'basically running the show' in Venezuela's political shift. This direct oversight reduces the probability of a reversal, such as a military coup, as it would require the US to abandon its established political agenda in the country.

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The Trump administration is depicted as ignoring Venezuela's legitimately elected opposition leader and instead choosing to work with the former vice president. This suggests a strategy prioritizing controllable stability with a regime figure over supporting a democratically elected but potentially less predictable leader.

The U.S. action in Venezuela should be viewed as 'regime alteration.' Unlike the failed Iraq strategy of dismantling a state, this was a targeted move to swap a leader aligned with China and Russia for one answerable to the U.S. It’s a pragmatic assertion of influence, not an idealistic attempt at democratization.

The U.S. strategy appears to be maintaining a weakened Chavista regime to ensure stability and access to oil, effectively turning Venezuela into a resource colony without genuine political change for its people.

While the Trump administration backs Delcy Rodriguez for perceived stability, polling shows Venezuelans overwhelmingly demand new elections within a year. This clash between the US focus on a managed transition and the populace's desire for immediate democracy creates a high-stakes environment where ignoring the public will could ironically lead to more instability.

In post-Maduro Venezuela, American pressure is primarily focused on liberalizing the economy for foreign investment, especially in oil. While this has resulted in some political shifts, the overwhelming priority is economic access for American interests, demonstrating a pragmatic rather than purely ideological approach to nation-building.

The US action to remove Maduro was not a traditional regime change. The goal was to eliminate the leader personally while leaving his party and government apparatus largely intact, suggesting a strategic choice to avoid the instability of a full power vacuum.

Interim President Delcy Rodriguez's authority stems from her unique ability to engage with international actors like the U.S., a skill her powerful military rivals lack. This makes her both indispensable and vulnerable within the regime.

By leaving the existing Chavista power structure largely intact after removing Maduro, the U.S. is applying a key lesson from Iraq: avoiding a power vacuum and the chaos of de-Ba'athification is paramount for stability.

Despite rhetoric supporting protesters in Iran and Venezuela, the Trump administration's actions suggest a preference for replacing existing leaders with more compliant strongmen. In Venezuela, this meant dealing with Maduro's VP, indicating a pragmatic focus on control and stability over messy, long-term nation-building.

The widespread expectation for elections in Venezuela is not rooted in domestic institutional strength, but in faith in US political figures like Donald Trump and Marco Rubio to apply pressure. This reliance on external actors, combined with hope in a single leader, Maria Machado, creates a fragile foundation for a sustainable democratic transition.

US Government's Deep Involvement in Venezuela's Transition Mitigates Reversal Risk | RiffOn