The U.S. action in Venezuela should be viewed as 'regime alteration.' Unlike the failed Iraq strategy of dismantling a state, this was a targeted move to swap a leader aligned with China and Russia for one answerable to the U.S. It’s a pragmatic assertion of influence, not an idealistic attempt at democratization.
Trump’s national security strategy subtly resurrected the 'Roosevelt Corollary' of 1904. This doctrine extends the Monroe Doctrine by asserting the U.S. right to proactively change governments it dislikes in the Western Hemisphere, signaling a return to a more interventionist and sphere-of-influence-based foreign policy.
Ukraine should aim to become the 'South Korea' of Europe. This means accepting a negotiated peace or armistice that secures its independence and sovereignty over most of its territory, even if it doesn't reclaim everything. It can then rebuild into a prosperous democracy, creating a stark contrast with a decaying Russia.
Contrary to popular hope, a scenario where Ukraine fully expels Russia and regains all territory is a 'total fantasy.' Based on historical precedent, the war has only two realistic outcomes: a Ukrainian collapse under sustained pressure or a compromise peace that grants Russia de facto control of some territory.
Historian Niall Ferguson argues Trump's talk of buying Greenland was not a random whim but a masterclass in distraction. It was a 'Mascherovka' (a Russian deception tactic) designed to make Europeans debate a trivial issue, preventing them from focusing on and protesting a potential, imminent U.S. military action against Iran.
Despite widespread protests, Iran's repressive state apparatus is highly effective and has shown no signs of cracking. The probability of the regime collapsing from internal pressure alone is extremely low. Niall Ferguson argues that only external intervention, a form of 'regime alteration,' can realistically topple the Islamic Republic.
Despite friction with the US, allies like Germany have no real economic alternative in China. The US is an 'empire of consumption'—a massive market to sell to. In contrast, China's model is to sell its own goods while cloning and stealing foreign technology, making it a dangerous long-term economic partner.
The UK produces world-class tech talent and companies like AI-pioneer DeepMind. However, its 'utterly unfriendly' capital markets make it impossible to scale ambitious ventures domestically. This institutional failure, not a cultural lack of risk-taking, forces its best companies to be acquired by US tech giants.
Instead of slow, bureaucratic rearmament, Germany could apply an 'Operation Warp Speed' model to its defense industry. By mass-producing Ukraine’s innovative drone designs at scale, Germany would not only create a powerful deterrent against Russia but also trigger its own economic recovery, a decisive strategic win-win.
Trump's confrontational stance with allies isn't just chaos; it's a calculated strategy based on the reality that they have nowhere else to go. The U.S. can troll and pressure nations like Canada and European countries, knowing they won't realistically align with China, ultimately forcing them to increase their own defense commitments.
European rhetoric about 'strategic autonomy' is ultimately hollow. For decades, Europe's security has been guaranteed by the U.S. nuclear umbrella, a public good it cannot afford or politically agree to replicate. This fundamental dependency ensures Europe cannot truly break from U.S. foreign policy, regardless of leadership style.