While the Trump administration backs Delcy Rodriguez for perceived stability, polling shows Venezuelans overwhelmingly demand new elections within a year. This clash between the US focus on a managed transition and the populace's desire for immediate democracy creates a high-stakes environment where ignoring the public will could ironically lead to more instability.
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A former NSC official reflects that the U.S. missed a key window of opportunity after Hugo Chavez's death. By choosing to "manage" the situation rather than applying strong pressure on a then-unpopular Nicolas Maduro, the U.S. lost a chance to shape a different outcome.
The Trump administration is depicted as ignoring Venezuela's legitimately elected opposition leader and instead choosing to work with the former vice president. This suggests a strategy prioritizing controllable stability with a regime figure over supporting a democratically elected but potentially less predictable leader.
Venezuela's remaining leadership can adopt a strategy of "playing for time." By appearing cooperative while delaying substantive changes, they can wait for events like the US midterms to increase domestic political pressure on the administration, making sustained intervention unpopular and difficult to maintain. The weaker state's best defense is the superpower's internal clock.
The U.S. strategy appears to be maintaining a weakened Chavista regime to ensure stability and access to oil, effectively turning Venezuela into a resource colony without genuine political change for its people.
Polling reveals a paradox in Venezuela: high approval for the Trump administration coexists with overwhelming support for opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. This is in direct conflict with Trump's backing of Maduro's former VP, creating a tense dynamic where US policy is misaligned with the clear democratic will of the people.
Contrary to the assumption that U.S. military action is unwelcome in the region, polling reveals significant support. 53% of Latin Americans and 64% of the Venezuelan diaspora would back an intervention to remove Nicolas Maduro, highlighting a major disconnect with the skepticism of the American public.
The US action to remove Maduro was not a traditional regime change. The goal was to eliminate the leader personally while leaving his party and government apparatus largely intact, suggesting a strategic choice to avoid the instability of a full power vacuum.
Interim President Delcy Rodriguez's authority stems from her unique ability to engage with international actors like the U.S., a skill her powerful military rivals lack. This makes her both indispensable and vulnerable within the regime.
By leaving the existing Chavista power structure largely intact after removing Maduro, the U.S. is applying a key lesson from Iraq: avoiding a power vacuum and the chaos of de-Ba'athification is paramount for stability.
The Trump administration's intervention in Venezuela is overtly focused on securing oil to lower global prices, rather than promoting human rights. The plan involves seizing and selling Venezuelan oil with the president personally controlling the proceeds in what critics are calling "high tech piracy."
