A destabilized Iranian regime is more dangerous, not less. Israeli intelligence fears Tehran might launch a strike on a foreign enemy like Israel to distract its populace, create a "rally 'round the flag" effect, and restore military pride after recent setbacks.

Authoritarian leaders who publicly mock or dismiss threats risk triggering a military response driven by personal pride. Venezuelan President Maduro's televised dancing was reportedly perceived by the Trump administration as calling their bluff, demonstrating how avoiding the appearance of being a 'chump' can become a primary motivator for military action.

Contrary to his hawkish reputation, Benjamin Netanyahu is deliberately lowering Israel's profile regarding Iran's internal protests. This strategic silence aims to prevent the embattled Iranian regime from feeling cornered and launching a preemptive attack out of paranoia.

Trump's negotiation strategy, particularly with Iran, involves a massive, visible military presence to create extreme pressure. This 'peace through strength' approach aims to force concessions at the negotiating table by making the alternative—imminent, overwhelming force—undeniably clear and credible.

With its credibility destroyed by bloodshed, the Iranian regime's only remaining leverage over some citizens is the fear of a chaotic power vacuum. The prospect of a full-blown civil war may convince some to tolerate the current oppression over the alternative of total state collapse.

The public threats of a military strike against Iran may be a high-stakes negotiating tactic, consistent with Trump's style of creating chaos before seeking a deal. The goal is likely not war, which would be politically damaging, but to force Iran into economic concessions or a new agreement on US terms.

When a government cuts off internet and phone lines during massive protests, as seen in Iran, it's a clear indicator they are trying to conceal the severity of their response from the world. This tactic undermines their own claims of control and reveals a deep fear of international scrutiny.

The current Iranian protests are uniquely potent because the regime is at its weakest geopolitically. The loss of regional proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, coupled with key ally Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine, has left the Iranian government more isolated and vulnerable than during any previous wave of unrest.

Despite widespread internal protests and instability, history shows that an external attack is one of the few things that can unify the Iranian population. A potential Israeli strike, meant to weaken the regime, could backfire by creating a 'rally 'round the flag' effect that shores up support for the Ayatollah.