China's "panda diplomacy" is often seen through the lens of gifting animals. However, the more potent signal is their withdrawal. For the first time in 54 years, Japan has no pandas, a direct reflection of cooling relations, especially as China promises new pandas to a friendlier South Korea, indicating shifting regional alignments.
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While Xi looms large, his foreign policy is largely consistent with the path set by his predecessors. He has capitalized on China's increased power to pursue established goals more intensely, but he has not radically changed the overall direction. Focusing only on him as an individual misses this continuity.
While publicly announcing a trade truce with China, the Trump administration simultaneously signed deals with other Asian nations to diversify supply chains and bolster defense partnerships, effectively preparing for future confrontation with Beijing.
Despite widespread adoration for giant pandas, with fans showing immense emotion at their departure, public sentiment in Japan towards China remains overwhelmingly negative. A recent poll showed nearly 90% of Japanese people hold unfavorable views of China, highlighting the distinct separation between cultural symbols and geopolitical feelings.
China is deploying a dual-track foreign policy: engaging in soft 'panda diplomacy' with Western powers like the UK and Canada through cultural outreach and visa-free travel, while simultaneously taking a hardline 'wolf warrior' stance with regional rivals like Japan over issues such as Taiwan and currency tensions. This flexible approach allows Beijing to selectively de-risk relationships.
While the U.S. employs aggressive, short-term tactics, China plays a long game. They use economic incentives and a 'friendly' image to win allies, which erodes America's global standing over time as nations seek a less volatile partner.
Beijing interprets America's focus on regions like Latin America or the Middle East with a 'shoulder shrug.' They see these distractions as beneficial, giving them more freedom to aggressively pursue their own interests and push allies in the Indo-Pacific without US interference.
Beijing capitalizes on visits from leaders of key US allies like Canada. Through official media and academic commentary, China actively encourages these nations to adopt "strategic autonomy" from Washington, aiming to sow division and weaken the Western bloc's united front.
President Xi Jinping used a phone call with President Trump not just for bilateral issues, but to strategically signal displeasure with Japan's hawkish stance on Taiwan. This "shadow play" diplomacy shows China leveraging its relationship with the U.S. to indirectly manage and warn other nations, making the U.S. a channel for its geopolitical messaging.
Recent trade talks deliberately sidestepped core geopolitical issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea. This highlights that economic agreements are merely treating symptoms. The fundamental problem is a geopolitical power struggle, which will continue to undermine any economic progress.
Facing a potential US pullback and rising Chinese aggression, Japan's leadership is reportedly questioning its long-held "three non-nuclear principles." This signals a major strategic shift, potentially aiming to allow US nuclear vessels in its ports to establish a credible, independent deterrent against China.
