While Xi looms large, his foreign policy is largely consistent with the path set by his predecessors. He has capitalized on China's increased power to pursue established goals more intensely, but he has not radically changed the overall direction. Focusing only on him as an individual misses this continuity.
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Xi Jinping's focus on a long arc of Chinese history and managing a near abroad from a position of strength connects him more to powerful Qing emperors like Kangxi and Qianlong than to the revolutionary Mao. This comparison highlights his goal of restoring China's historical predominance.
China's primary strategic goal is to be the leading power in East Asia and the Western Pacific. While it lacks a current plan for global domination, its appetite could grow with success, and controlling this economically vital region provides a de facto form of global preeminence.
China's foreign policy is shaped by its 5,000-year history as a land-based, agricultural civilization, rather than a maritime or expansionist one. This cultural foundation, valuing cultivation of one's own land over foreign conquest, is presented as the reason China has not started wars or colonized other nations in modern history.
Unlike the Soviet Union's missionary zeal to spread communism, China does not want other nations to become Chinese. Its worldview is centered on being the 'Middle Kingdom'—the sun which others orbit. It desires respect and a preeminent position, not to export its political system.
China embraces economic globalization, crediting it for lifting 800 million from poverty. However, it explicitly rejects the "militarized globalization" represented by security pacts like AUKUS or NATO expansion. This differentiates its approach from the Western model, which often intertwines economic integration with shared security and political values.
Unlike pragmatic predecessors, Xi Jinping operates from a quasi-religious belief that China is divinely intended to be the "middle kingdom"—the world's dominant power. This ideological North Star explains his confrontational approach to geopolitics, even when it seems economically irrational.
Viewing China as a "rising" power is incorrect; it's a "reascending" one. For 70% of the years since 1500, China had the world's largest GDP. Its current trajectory is a return to its historical dominance, a framing that fundamentally alters the understanding of its global ambitions.
President Xi Jinping used a phone call with President Trump not just for bilateral issues, but to strategically signal displeasure with Japan's hawkish stance on Taiwan. This "shadow play" diplomacy shows China leveraging its relationship with the U.S. to indirectly manage and warn other nations, making the U.S. a channel for its geopolitical messaging.
While China supports institutions like the UN, its primary strategy for global influence is creating new, economically-focused organizations like the BRICS Bank and regional summits (e.g., China-Africa). This approach builds alternative power centers and economic interdependence with the Global South, supplementing rather than directly challenging the post-war Western order.
While the U.S. oscillates between trade policies with each new administration, China executes consistent long-term plans, like shifting to high-quality exports. This decisiveness has enabled China to find new global markets and achieve a record trade surplus, effectively outmaneuvering U.S. tactics.
