Chinese leadership believes time is not on its side regarding Taiwan. The growing sense of a distinct Taiwanese identity, especially among younger generations, creates pressure to act before a political 'reunification' becomes impossible, thus increasing the risk of military action.
Unlike the bipolar, economically isolated US-Soviet dynamic, today's world is multipolar. Crucially, the US and China compete within the same global economic system, making containment strategies from the Cold War era ineffective and dangerous to apply.
A historian analogizes Taiwan's precarious situation to three pre-WWI flashpoints. It's a territorial claim (Alsace), a likely source of a great power crisis (Bosnia), and a strategic calculation for intervention by a global power (Belgium), making it exceptionally volatile.
China's primary strategic goal is to be the leading power in East Asia and the Western Pacific. While it lacks a current plan for global domination, its appetite could grow with success, and controlling this economically vital region provides a de facto form of global preeminence.
Policymakers instinctively rely on historical analogies. While powerful, this reliance is dangerous when based on simplistic or false comparisons like 'another Munich' or 'another Vietnam.' This makes rigorous, nuanced historical perspective essential to avoid repeating past mistakes driven by flawed parallels.
While China gains access to resources, its de facto alliance with Russia is a long-term liability. It damages relations with Europe and risks entanglement in conflicts where China has little interest, driven by Russia's own quarrels and irresponsible international behavior.
Xi Jinping's focus on a long arc of Chinese history and managing a near abroad from a position of strength connects him more to powerful Qing emperors like Kangxi and Qianlong than to the revolutionary Mao. This comparison highlights his goal of restoring China's historical predominance.
The current era of multipolarity, global economic integration, and tensions between rising and incumbent powers (like China and the US) is more analogous to the early 20th century before WWI than the bipolar Cold War. This historical parallel carries stark warnings about the potential for conflict.
While Xi looms large, his foreign policy is largely consistent with the path set by his predecessors. He has capitalized on China's increased power to pursue established goals more intensely, but he has not radically changed the overall direction. Focusing only on him as an individual misses this continuity.