China's tough stance toward US allies is not a diplomatic blunder but a deliberate strategy. By applying pressure, Beijing aims to demonstrate that complaining to a distracted Washington is futile, thereby forcing allies to eventually accommodate Chinese interests.
While the West debates 'Peak China,' Beijing operates under its own 'Peak America' theory. It interprets aggressive US actions not as signs of strength, but as the desperate flailing of a declining power that recognizes time is no longer on its side.
After initially planning a hardline stance, the second Trump administration was checkmated by China’s control over rare earth minerals. This forced a significant policy climb-down, leading to concessions on export controls and attempts to mollify Beijing.
As a 'princeling,' Xi Jinping possesses an intuitive, inherited understanding of the Communist Party's hidden power networks. This allows him to surgically purge high-level opponents without getting 'zapped,' a feat his predecessors couldn't manage.
The CCP has an institutionalized process for studying historical failures, like the Soviet Union's collapse, to avoid a similar fate. This obsessive self-analysis allows the party to systematically break down problems, adapt, and apply lessons to ensure its survival.
To get accurate information, Xi likely triangulates opinions from various sources and cultivates aides who can package critical feedback as constructive suggestions. These 'yes, but' men can challenge ideas or propose delays without direct, risky confrontation.
While the US focuses intensely on foundational AI models, China pursues a broader portfolio approach. Beijing prioritizes the practical deployment of AI in manufacturing alongside major investments in robotics and green technology to build comprehensive industrial capacity.
Unlike in the West, China's economic dysfunctions like industrial overcapacity paradoxically strengthen its global position. This creates massive trade surpluses and investment leverage, forcing other nations to welcome Chinese capital and increasing Beijing's geopolitical heft.
Beijing interprets America's focus on regions like Latin America or the Middle East with a 'shoulder shrug.' They see these distractions as beneficial, giving them more freedom to aggressively pursue their own interests and push allies in the Indo-Pacific without US interference.
Recent purges in China's military mark a seismic shift as Xi targets his own appointees and longtime allies, not just rival factions. The removal of figures like Zhang Yuxia signals either Xi's ultimate ruthlessness or a potential shift toward paranoia.