The post-WWII global framework, including international law, was a fragile agreement primarily enforced by the US. Its erosion is leading to a "might makes right" reality where nations like Russia, China, and the US act unilaterally in their perceived self-interest, abandoning the pretense of shared rules.

The US is actively dismantling the global systems it created (free trade, collective security), making it the primary driver of global uncertainty, not external challengers like China.

The current era of multipolarity, global economic integration, and tensions between rising and incumbent powers (like China and the US) is more analogous to the early 20th century before WWI than the bipolar Cold War. This historical parallel carries stark warnings about the potential for conflict.

For generations, Western societies have viewed peace and prosperity as the default state. This perception is a historical outlier, making the return to 'dog eat dog' great power politics seem shocking, when in fact it's a reversion to the historical norm of conflict.

The Western belief that free trade would cause authoritarian states like China to liberalize has proven false. Instead, this policy created a powerful manufacturing competitor whose interests diverge from the West's. The current era of deglobalization is an unwinding of this flawed foundational premise of the post-war order.

The true 'mega risk' is not a single policy but a fundamental shift in the US global role. The post-1945 global economic system, including free trade and dollar dominance, has been built on a foundation of US security and leadership. If that leadership is withdrawn, the entire international order could change fundamentally.

Nations like Poland pursuing nuclear weapons signals a global shift away from a rules-based international order. Countries increasingly realize national security depends on raw military and economic power, not alliances and treaties.

We are living in a historically abnormal period of peace defined by three numbers: 80 years without a great power war, 80 years without nuclear weapon use, and only 9 nuclear states. This fragile peace, the longest since Roman times, is not a natural state and is constantly eroding, requiring active work to sustain.

The post-WWII global system was always fated to end in this decade. The root causes are long-term trends in trade and demographics, specifically aging populations running out of working-age adults. Trump is merely the political figure officiating this pre-destined formal break, not its architect.