The US is actively dismantling the global systems it created (free trade, collective security), making it the primary driver of global uncertainty, not external challengers like China.
Autocratic regimes can endure prolonged economic and political hardship. Democratic leaders, facing voters and market pressures, cannot. This gives non-democracies significant leverage, as they know democracies will fold first.
The most influential global leaders are no longer countries but technology companies. In the Ukraine war, Microsoft's cyber defense and Elon Musk's Starlink had a more decisive impact than many governments.
While the US focuses on quarterly returns, China has spent decades investing in and controlling the supply chain for critical minerals essential for technology and defense, securing long-term leverage.
Trump's policy incompetence will lead to his downfall, but he only capitalized on existing American discontent. This demand for revolution will remain, awaiting a new leader from the left or right.
A new form of populist rage is emerging against AI data centers. Local constituents see them as bringing no jobs, driving up energy prices, and creating an eyesore, leading to intense political opposition.
Powerful AI models pose a systemic risk to the global economy. To manage this, the world needs a technocratic body like the Financial Stability Board to identify and respond to AI threats independently from geopolitics.
A probable off-ramp for the US-Iran conflict involves Iran conceding on nuclear enrichment. In return, they could gain leverage and revenue by maintaining control over transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Trump and Brexit movements were driven by blue-collar workers. The coming political upheaval will be fueled by a different demographic: urban, degree-educated knowledge workers whose jobs are directly threatened by AI.
Trump's current inner circle consists of advisors loyal to him personally, not the country. They filter information to praise him and won't challenge his ideas, leading to poorly-informed, dangerous decisions.
Trump's successful, low-casualty operation in Venezuela created a false sense of confidence. He wrongly assumed the same strategy would work in Iran, ignoring the vastly different context and leading to a major conflict.
After the Soviet Union's collapse, Europe incorrectly assumed permanent peace. It divested from defense and technology, focusing on social welfare, which ultimately rendered it economically uncompetitive and geopolitically weak.
Three competing systems exist: The US model (private sector captures government) creates wealth but inequality. The Chinese model (state captures business) drives growth without freedom. The European model (social contract focus) stifles the growth needed to fund it.