Contrary to widespread fear, the probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is extremely low (~5%). China believes its goal of 'peaceful reunification' is progressing, its military is in disarray after deep purges, and it views President Trump as an accommodating US leader on the Taiwan issue.
The concentration of wealth where the top 10-20% capture 70-80% of the economic pie is fundamentally unstable in a democracy where everyone gets a vote. This economic reality serves as a political invitation for populist demagogues, making the rise of radical socialist ideas a predictable and dangerous outcome.
A critical, unforeseen consequence of the US-Israel conflict with Iran is the direct impact on Ukraine's defense capabilities. Patriot missile systems intended to protect Ukraine from Russian strikes have been redeployed to the Middle East, leaving Kyiv more vulnerable and demonstrating the interconnectedness of global conflicts.
President Trump's attempt to acquire Greenland should be understood through the lens of a reality TV producer creating drama. He enjoys initiating a controversial narrative, letting tension build, and then resolving it for entertainment and attention, rather than as a calculated strategic maneuver for military or resource advantage.
The spectacular success of US military and intelligence operations, like the one against Maduro in Venezuela, can create a dangerous sense of hubris. Leaders may begin to see the military as a 'magic wand' for solving any problem, leading them to misapply this powerful tool in more complex situations like Iran.
The US attack on Iran was not part of a grand strategy, but the result of Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu's two-decade campaign to persuade a US president to act. Professor Allison describes Netanyahu as a 'magician' who successfully 'mesmerized' President Trump into initiating what is effectively 'Bibi's war.'
Advocates for regime change in Iran ignore the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan. Destroying the existing regime is far easier than building a new, stable government. The US has a poor track record, spending trillions and thousands of lives in similar efforts only to see the original powers, like the Taliban, return.
While China's declining population is seen as a major economic challenge, the country is mitigating it by becoming the world's leader in automation. With more than half the world's factory robots already in China, it's plausible an automated workforce will compensate for fewer human workers, countering the narrative that demographics will halt its rise.
We are living in a historically abnormal period of peace defined by three numbers: 80 years without a great power war, 80 years without nuclear weapon use, and only 9 nuclear states. This fragile peace, the longest since Roman times, is not a natural state and is constantly eroding, requiring active work to sustain.