Unlike the 20th-century Monroe Doctrine focused on ideology (anti-fascism/communism), Trump's version is a throwback to a more aggressive, 19th-century style of foreign policy. It unapologetically prioritizes the direct control of economic resources, like Venezuelan oil, over promoting democracy or good governance.
While US actions in Latin America may be a direct loss for Russia and China's regional allies, they create a global precedent. A world where great powers feel free to act forcefully in their immediate surroundings is precisely the international order that Russia and China want to establish in Eastern Europe and the Western Pacific.
The 'Donroe Doctrine' is not a contradiction of an 'America First' platform but its logical extension. The administration's view is that the US cannot be the preeminent global power without first being the preeminent regional power. Consolidating influence in the Western Hemisphere is seen as a necessary foundation for projecting power globally.
The effort to acquire Greenland is more than a hemispheric strategy; it signals the US may be joining Russia and China in seeking to coercively redraw borders. This shift from all three major powers challenges the post-1945 international order that has largely prohibited forcible conquest, a change not seen since the 1930s.
The administration's approach is not simple isolationism. While demanding a dominant sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere, Trump also maintains the desire for unhindered freedom of action globally, such as mediating conflicts far from US shores. This creates a hybrid policy of 'dominance at home and freedom to roam abroad.'
The true 'mega risk' is not a single policy but a fundamental shift in the US global role. The post-1945 global economic system, including free trade and dollar dominance, has been built on a foundation of US security and leadership. If that leadership is withdrawn, the entire international order could change fundamentally.