The post-WWII global system was always fated to end in this decade. The root causes are long-term trends in trade and demographics, specifically aging populations running out of working-age adults. Trump is merely the political figure officiating this pre-destined formal break, not its architect.
The only other time in history with a significant population decline was the Black Plague. While the economic context was vastly different, its outcome offers a rough directional guide. The resulting labor shortage increased the value of skilled workers, broke the feudal system, and ultimately sparked the Renaissance.
Viewing Trump's actions as part of a grand strategic plan is flawed. According to inside sources, his administration's policy is purely tactical and present-focused, lacking memory of past decisions or a vision for the future. The mantra is, 'There is no yesterday. There is no tomorrow. There is only the now.'
Capitalism, socialism, and communism are all growth-based systems predicated on an expanding population to balance labor, capital, and demand. As the world enters demographic decline with shrinking working-age populations, the fundamental assumptions of these 500-year-old models collapse, requiring a complete reinvention of economic theory.
The globalized system allowed countries to hyper-specialize in high-value production, like Germany in manufacturing or Korea in memory chips. As this system breaks down, nations lose access to global supply chains and must revert to being generalists, causing a catastrophic drop in technological capability and standard of living.
While likely not deliberate, the Trump administration's chaotic policies function as a new economic experiment. By artificially restricting production and controlling demand through tariffs and favoritism, it creates a hybrid of capitalism and fascism. This serves as a real-world test for a non-growth economic model, however horrific its implications.
The U.S. established the global order not through force, but by offering a deal: it would guarantee global security for shipping and keep its markets open, provided allies allowed the U.S. to write their security policies. This successfully aligned major world powers under U.S. command against the Soviets.
China is completely dependent on US-policed sea lanes for oil and food. The U.S. could trigger a civilizational collapse, potentially killing half the population, by simply using a few destroyers to stop energy and food flows near Singapore. This can be done without a direct military confrontation on Chinese soil.
For the U.S. to create a resilient, regionalized supply chain ('globalization 2.0'), it cannot perform all functions itself. It must integrate with countries that can provide low-cost assembly and processing, which are uneconomical at U.S. wage levels. Colombia and Cuba are the best geographical and demographic options to fill this critical gap.