The Trump administration reveals that governance is less about ideology and more about high-stakes transactions. Success in politics, much like a game of 'money chess,' comes from identifying and trading for what each party desires—be it money, oil, or influence. This transactional nature of power is far more pervasive than many believe.

Unlike predecessors who framed foreign policy within a broader worldview (e.g., democracy promotion), Trump's approach is purely transactional and theatrical. It lacks a moral or ideological justification, instead focusing on demanding tribute, like oil from Venezuela, to appeal to a nationalist base without building a durable governing coalition.

Viewing Trump's actions as part of a grand strategic plan is flawed. According to inside sources, his administration's policy is purely tactical and present-focused, lacking memory of past decisions or a vision for the future. The mantra is, 'There is no yesterday. There is no tomorrow. There is only the now.'

Trump's focus on negotiations and high-stakes deals over ideology is a direct result of his mentorship by Roy Cohn, a lawyer known for representing organized crime figures and teaching Trump the art of the backroom deal. This transactional approach prioritizes optics and perceived 'wins' over policy substance.

The long-standing Monroe Doctrine is being superseded by a "Trump Doctrine." This new worldview prioritizes hemispheric dominance, unilateralism, and proactive intervention for specific economic and security interests (e.g., controlling immigration, securing vital assets), fundamentally changing how America views its sphere of influence.

Instead of fearing Trump's unpredictability, foreign leaders can manipulate it. By appealing to his desire for a 'peace through strength' legacy and his need to showcase American power, a country like Mexico could secure significant military and economic aid by framing it as a clear win for him.

Marco Rubio articulated Trump's foreign policy as a 'spheres of influence' model, a modern Monroe Doctrine. This framework cedes global leadership, envisioning a world where the U.S. controls the West, Russia controls its territory and Europe, and China controls Asia. This marks a fundamental shift from America's post-WWII role as a global superpower to a regional one.

Stephen Walt defines Trump's foreign policy as 'predatory hegemony,' a unique strategy where a dominant power uses its leverage to extract concessions and tribute from everyone, including long-standing allies. This departs from traditional great power politics, which is typically predatory only toward rivals.

The latest U.S. National Security Strategy drops confrontational rhetoric about China as an ideological threat, instead framing the relationship around economic rivalry and rebalancing. This shift prioritizes tangible deals over promoting American values globally, marking a departure from Reagan-era foreign policy.