In response to America's predatory and unpredictable policies, allies are not just complaining; they are actively diversifying their economic relationships to reduce their vulnerability. This is seen in new trade deals like EU-Mercosur and Canada-Indonesia, which consciously bypass the US to build resilience.
Restoring global trust may require holding a prior administration legally accountable for breaking laws. However, this creates a dangerous paradox: the threat of future prosecution gives incumbents a powerful incentive to subvert democratic processes to remain in power, worsening domestic political instability.
The true danger of 'predatory hegemony' is not an immediate, catastrophic failure but a gradual degradation of American power, wealth, and influence. This slow fraying of alliances and trust is harder to perceive in the short term but risks leaving the US in a permanently weakened global position over time.
Despite claims of being 'realist,' Trump's foreign policy is fundamentally anti-realist. By alienating allies, cutting R&D, and acting imprudently, it undermines the very sources of long-term American power—partnerships and technological superiority—that a true realist would seek to preserve.
Using security guarantees like NATO as leverage for economic concessions is a self-defeating strategy. If the threat is constantly repeated but never acted upon, it's exposed as a bluff, losing its power. If the US does withdraw from an alliance, the leverage disappears entirely, leaving America less secure.
China is capitalizing on the chaos of Trump's foreign policy by portraying itself as a predictable and responsible global leader. While this narrative may not be accurate, America's erratic behavior makes China's case more persuasive to other nations seeking stability, allowing Beijing to gain diplomatic influence.
Trump's 'America First' platform was not a random occurrence but a predictable backlash against the US establishment's post-Cold War excesses. Policies like 'hyper-globalization' and 'forever wars' created domestic discontent and a loss of faith in traditional foreign policy, which Trump successfully exploited.
Trump's re-election shatters the perception that his first term was an aberration. Allies now see his brand of foreign policy as a persistent feature of the American political landscape. Any future US administration, even a traditional one, will face deep skepticism as partners anticipate the pendulum could swing back.
Stephen Walt defines Trump's foreign policy as 'predatory hegemony,' a unique strategy where a dominant power uses its leverage to extract concessions and tribute from everyone, including long-standing allies. This departs from traditional great power politics, which is typically predatory only toward rivals.
A core element of Trump's worldview is the belief that global affairs can be managed through personal relationships and deals between powerful leaders, bypassing institutions. This 'great power condominium' approach explains his attempts to charm leaders like Putin and Xi, believing his personal diplomacy can resolve complex structural issues.