Headline unemployment in India and Indonesia masks a deeper issue: underemployment. In India, 40% of the workforce is in the primary sector which produces less than 20% of GDP. In Indonesia, 60% of jobs are informal and pay below minimum wage, signaling a crisis of job quality, not just quantity.

The unemployment rate for college-educated young men has surged to 7%, matching that of their peers without a degree. This parity indicates that a traditional degree's value in securing entry-level employment is eroding for this demographic, challenged by AI automation and increased competition from experienced workers.

The official unemployment rate is misleadingly low because when disgruntled workers give up looking for a job, they exit the labor force and are no longer counted as 'unemployed.' This artificially improves the headline number while masking underlying economic weakness and anger among young job seekers.

While bullish on India, investors should note it's not participating in every global trend. Unlike North Asia (Korea, Taiwan), India is not a player in the "AI picks and shovels" hardware theme. It also lacks the investment drivers seen in Europe related to serving an aging population.

China faces a severe labor market mismatch. Over the last five years, the number of university graduates grew by 40% to nearly 12 million. Simultaneously, the economy shed 20 million jobs, creating a surplus of educated youth with limited opportunities and suppressed wages.

Despite strong export-led growth in Asia, the benefits did not trickle down to households. Weak household income and consumption prompted governments and central banks to implement fiscal support and monetary easing. This disconnect between headline GDP and domestic demand is a critical factor for understanding Asian economic policy.

Mastercard's Chief Economist argues the labor market is in balance, not collapsing. A slowdown from 175k to ~70k jobs/month is a necessary correction from an unsustainable, post-pandemic surge. With both labor demand (hiring) and supply decreasing, key metrics like the unemployment rate remain stable, indicating equilibrium rather than decline.

Headline GDP figures can be misleading in an environment of high immigration and inflation. Metrics like per-capita energy consumption or the number of labor hours needed to afford goods provide a more accurate picture of individual well-being, revealing that many feel poorer despite positive official growth numbers.

Including government employment in GDP calculations is a form of double-counting tax revenue that masks the true health of the private sector. A major reduction in federal workers would reveal a startlingly low real growth rate, exposing decades of underlying economic stagnation.