February 13, 2026
Commodity sell-off is a healthy correction, not a downturn. A supply-driven 'crocodile cycle' creates a buy opportunity in metals, especially gold.
The US dollar's weakness persists amid equity stress, a shifting yen narrative, European FX divergence, and rising US trade policy risks.
Divergent paths for Scandinavian rates: Norway faces persistent inflation delaying cuts, while Sweden's disinflation brings easing into view.
EM Fixed Income shows resilience, driven by a structural dollar downcycle and cyclical growth. Fund flows are in early stages of a major trend.
US & Eurex futures roll analysis: Positioning is the key driver, with record US WN longs, amid stable Fed & ECB policy expectations.
February 6, 2026
Global FX focuses on an APAC rotation, with a bullish Aussie view post-RBA hike, while fading the dovish BoE's impact on a resilient Sterling.
Gold remains a 'buy the dip' opportunity with a bullish outlook, while silver's froth and extreme volatility warrant a more cautious approach.
ECB holds steady while a dovish BoE signals cuts. Caution is advised on skinny Euro carry trades amid external risks and rising UK political noise.
February 5, 2026
The US crypto market structure bill is in limbo over stablecoin yield rules, as tokenized deposits and money funds emerge as key alternatives.
January 31, 2026
Commodity whiplash: Gold & copper see record volatility, oil surges on geopolitical risk, and extreme cold drains European gas reserves.
January 30, 2026
JPM strategists discuss a bearish dollar view, bullish metals (gold, copper), and key APAC FX opportunities in AUD, JPY, and CNY.
EM Fixed Income faces short-term volatility amid a bullish long-term FX cycle. Navigating technical signals and divergent policy is key.
January 29, 2026
J.P. Morgan analysts discuss a hawkish Fed, rising global yield pressures, and expectations for a steady US Treasury refunding announcement.
January 23, 2026
J.P. Morgan FX strategists are bearish USD amid a pro-cyclical boom, but caution that stretched EM positioning signals potential for a reversal.
Analysts grow cautious on euro area carry trades due to low volatility, while viewing recent UK political risk priced into gilts as premature.
JPM analysts forecast a modest widening bias for the Ester-SOFR basis in 1H26, driven by Fed policy repricing and issuance seasonality.
January 22, 2026
EM Fixed Income shows strong resilience to volatility, but key technical indicators signal overbought markets, warranting tactical caution.
January 16, 2026
Global 2026 bond issuance sees a US-driven net decline, but record Euro gross supply. DMOs pivot to shorter maturities amid QT pressures.
Political events shake FX markets. We dive into Fed independence threats, Japan's snap election, and the implications for USD, JPY, and CNY.
Commodities face a volatile start: US tariff threats ease on metals, cold weather spikes European gas, and oil prices remain stable despite Iran risks.
January 15, 2026
EM fixed income markets are ignoring geopolitical noise, driven by a strong cyclical macro outlook. Focus on fundamentals, not headlines.
A $200B GSE mortgage purchase could tighten spreads, but a wall of money manager selling and hedging uncertainty complicates the market outlook.
January 9, 2026
FX markets enter 2026 with a pro-cyclical bias, favoring a bearish USD, high-yield carry, and commodity exporters, especially in metals.
A regime change in Venezuela could reshape commodity markets, boosting oil and gold supply and significantly enhancing U.S. geopolitical influence.
December 19, 2025
JPM's 2026 outlook: Contained dollar weakness, a data-dependent Fed, and divergent central bank actions from a hawkish BOE to a dovish BOJ.
December 18, 2025
Fed's new Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) lower front-end yields, boost liquidity, and widen swap spreads amid messy post-shutdown data.
December 17, 2025
EM outlook for 2026 is constructive, favoring local markets. Key debates center on inflation, political risks, and tight credit spreads.
December 12, 2025
A global rates repricing and a dovish Fed weigh on the USD, with focus shifting to key central bank meetings and unusual US double payrolls.
Oil Outlook 2026-27: Abundant non-OPEC supply from offshore and global shale will pressure prices, forcing market rebalancing via producer cuts.
December 5, 2025
J.P. Morgan's 2026 Outlook: Bullish on metals, bearish on energy. The 'crocodile cycle' widens as supply dynamics drive a sharp divergence.
November 28, 2025
JPM's 2026 FX Outlook: Bearish on the dollar, bullish on high-beta. Key themes include a weaker yen, a hawkish kiwi, and AI's growing impact.
FX Outlook 2026: Subdued volatility favors carry trades via options, relative value plays, and selective positioning around election risks.
November 26, 2025
J.P. Morgan's 2026 EM outlook: A benign but nuanced year ahead. Expect stable growth, the end of broad rate cuts, and opportunities in FX.
Global Rates 2026 Outlook: Expect a shallow Fed easing cycle, a firm ECB hold, and a hiking BOJ, making carry the prevailing strategy.
November 21, 2025
JPMorgan's 2026 metals outlook: Bullish on gold ($5,000/oz) and copper ($12,500/t) amid supply constraints and strong investor demand.
November 18, 2025
Bond futures rollover analysis: US markets face a "data fog" due to a shutdown, while Eurex views are driven by positioning and curve dynamics.
November 14, 2025
FX outlook: Play Europe's growth via high-beta Scandis, not EUR. Sterling faces budget risks & Asian FX weakness persists despite interventions.
Global LNG faces a potential glut as 400 BCM of new supply by 2035 outpaces slowing demand in key markets and infrastructure-limited growth.
November 13, 2025
J.P. Morgan experts analyze the Latam election cycle's impact on FX, rates, and credit, expecting contained volatility vs. the last cycle.
November 12, 2025
2026 agri outlook: US-China trade deal spurs long-term optimism amid short-term volatility. Key shifts in soybeans, grains, and livestock.
November 7, 2025
Central Banks on hold: Riksbank & Norges Bank stand pat, but a dovish Bank of England signals potential rate cuts amid UK fiscal tightening.
FX markets face US shutdown risks & mixed data. The Euro remains pro-cyclical, Sterling weakness may pause tactically, & Canada's budget supports CAD.
November 6, 2025
EM markets navigate a directionless phase. EMFX tracks global risk via tech stocks, rate vol remains low, and record sovereign supply is met.
October 31, 2025
Central banks diverge: FOMC signals a potential pause, spooking markets, while the ECB remains comfortably on hold, dampening volatility.
Fed's hawkish surprise boosts the dollar, while BOJ's dovish hold weakens the yen. We dissect central bank divergence and its FX implications.
China's 15th five-year plan prioritizes energy security, boosting domestic output and Russian gas, signaling a peak for LNG demand by 2032.
October 30, 2025
EM outlook brightens with stronger growth, but a hawkish Fed and tight credit spreads require selective strategies in rates, FX, and credit.
October 28, 2025
Experts analyze Japan's "Sanae-nomics." Fiscal policy may be more disciplined than feared, but a BOJ hike is likely, creating opportunities in yen and equities.
October 24, 2025
J.P. Morgan experts predict an imminent end to the Fed's QT amid funding stress, while forecasting stable Treasury supply until late next year.
FX markets brace for a pivotal Bank of Japan meeting, with a potential surprise rate hike set to drive yen volatility, overshadowing other events.
New US/EU sanctions on Russian oil will maintain export volumes but squeeze profits by increasing costs, forcing deeper discounts.
October 23, 2025
EM markets trade on global beta amid a US data void, with investor focus shifting to Argentina's pivotal legislative elections this weekend.
Experts dissect stablecoins: a potential driver of USD demand and EM finance, but scalability, risk, and regulatory hurdles remain key.
October 20, 2025
Cocoa prices have corrected 40% YTD as the market crunch eases. Improved supply, demand destruction, and a normalizing futures structure signal a shift to surplus.
October 17, 2025
J.P. Morgan strategists dissect rates volatility, funding stress from scarce liquidity, and why ending QT won't solve the market's core issues.
FX markets grapple with US data blackout & bank stress, rising US-China tensions, and diverging Antipodean signals. Conviction remains low.
J.P. Morgan analysts discuss record 2026 German issuance, an overweight on EU SSAs, diverging Scandi rates, and sticky European inflation.
October 13, 2025
Takaichi's win sparks 'Abenomics 2.0' fears, driving yen weakness & equity rallies. Experts debate fiscal realities vs. BOJ independence.
October 10, 2025
Gold rallies on new sovereign demand. The dollar defies bears amid global political risks. Focus shifts to Japan's policy and EM carry trades.
October 8, 2025
EM sovereign default risk has eased significantly since 2023, with most at-risk nations now stable, though Maldives and Bolivia remain key concerns.
October 3, 2025
FX strategists see the US shutdown as reinforcing a bearish USD view, favoring shorts vs CAD and a constructive stance on JPY into the BOJ.
JP Morgan analysts discuss Fed policy, balance sheet outlook, and their impact on the Ester-Sofer basis, expecting a narrow trading range.
Agri-markets face volatility from US-China trade talks and a developing La Nina, with a mixed Q4 outlook favouring grains and sugar over soybeans.
October 1, 2025
EM fixed income outlook shifts as stronger global growth challenges the Fed easing narrative, testing asset class resilience and carry trades.
September 26, 2025
J.P. Morgan experts analyze money market shifts, why the Fed funds rate moved, and the push to adopt TGCR as a more robust policy benchmark.
FX markets are in a low-conviction, data-dependent state. The long-term dollar bearish view is challenged by US shutdown risks & payrolls data.
A major disruption at the Grasberg mine has flipped the copper market to a significant deficit, driving a bullish price forecast to $11,250/ton.
Riksbank and Norges Bank deliver 'hawkish cuts', raising the bar for future easing. Sweden's budget and UK political noise add complexity.
September 23, 2025
Post-conference, investors are optimistic but selective on Frontier Markets, favoring local markets and strong reform stories in Africa and LatAm.
September 22, 2025
The Fed's rate cut cycle begins. J.P. Morgan analysts explore 3 scenarios for commodities: Bronzy Locks, Recession, and Reflation.
September 19, 2025
A dovish Fed signals medium-term dollar weakness, favoring pro-cyclical currencies while fiscal risks and policy divergence drive European FX.
Central banks diverge: The Fed cuts but signals a steeper curve, the BOE holds hawkishly, and the BOJ prepares for a potential hike.
September 18, 2025
US inflation risks skew up on a dovish Fed & politics, while Euro area inflation is set to fall. JPM strategists see wider US breakevens.
Post-Fed, EM sentiment is constructive. Investors eye local markets & frontiers, but caution on tight credit spreads & US macro risks prevails.
