October 2, 2026
High oil prices defy supply recovery, copper faces a major squeeze from China demand and supply risks, and gold's resilience signals new investors.
Euro sovereign spreads widen on technicals, especially in France. We also analyze DM rate seasonality, cross-currency basis, and the UK budget.
Rising yields and volatility are increasing the risk of Cheapest-to-Deliver (CTD) switches in US & Eurex futures, impacting hedging.
September 25, 2026
Analyzing a potential US diesel export ban's short-term gains vs. long-term strategic risks, and Europe's looming winter gas market volatility.
FX outlook: A potential US diesel ban pressures vulnerable currencies, the dollar's rally is fundamentally supported but underwhelming, and G10 divergence solidifies funders.
EUR curve flattens on ECB rate repricing; analysts are cautious on SSAs but favour EU bonds, while Norges Bank delivers a surprise hike.
September 24, 2026
Global inflation markets are driven by higher real yields, not inflation fears. Tactical opportunities emerge at the front-end in the US, EU & UK.
EM fixed income faces turbulence from rising US rates & a potential diesel ban, hitting local markets hard while credit markets show resilience.
September 22, 2026
JP Morgan's conference highlights robust investor interest in EM & Frontier markets for high carry, despite macro risks and stretched valuations.
September 18, 2026
A hawkish Fed, dovish BOJ, and resilient BOE reinforce a bullish USD and carry trade strategy, despite early-week stagflation jitters.
Geopolitical conflicts and a super El Niño are roiling commodity markets, with oil adjusting via demand destruction and agriculture facing weather risk.
September 17, 2026
The Fed's hawkish 25bp hike signals more to come. J.P. Morgan raises its 10-year yield forecast to 5.05%, seeing a 1999-2000 parallel.
JPM's conference highlights attractive yields in leveraged finance, but tight spreads and a booming demand for AI capital drive a cautious market.
Post-Fed hike, EM fixed income shows resilience. Fundamentals support credit and FX, while rates may pause their sell-off amid global repricing.
September 14, 2026
BOJ faces a complex balancing act. Expected rate hikes must navigate yen weakness, fiscal expansion, and political pressure, with global spillover risks.
September 11, 2026
Firm core CPI data, driven by a surprise in cell phone prices, shifts the J.P. Morgan Fed call to two hikes, despite weak headline data.
FX strategists debate the US dollar's perplexing weakness despite hawkish Fed signals, favoring high-carry currencies to weather the cycle.
European rates sell-off driven by energy prices & positioning, not fiscal risk. JP Morgan sees rates as cheap but tactically tricky, expecting BoE to hold.
September 10, 2026
EM Fixed Income shows resilience against rising US yields & oil prices. FX strength buoys local markets, but credit risks & key elections loom.
September 4, 2026
FX strategists debate the Dollar's path post-payrolls, potential Yen strength from policy shifts, and RBNZ/RBA policy divergence.
ECB set for a 25bps hike amid sticky inflation. Global factors, not local issues, are driving the sell-off in Euro & UK long-end yields.
September 3, 2026
EM fixed income faces hawkish central banks and rising rates. Synchronized global growth supports EMFX carry, but tight credit spreads demand selectivity.
August 28, 2026
EU growth outlook improves, fueling pro-cyclical FX carry trades. Hawkish Fed commentary post-Jackson Hole supports a strong US dollar.
August 21, 2026
FX strategists debate the US dollar's outlook post-Treasury actions, remaining 'thoughtfully neutral' while favoring pro-cyclical carry trades.
The US Treasury's surprise buyback expansion is likely a signal of discomfort with high rates, not a move to improve market liquidity.
August 20, 2026
EM carry trades dominate, with positioning becoming crowded. FX remains constructive, but local rates face headwinds from a steepening US curve.
August 14, 2026
J.P. Morgan's FX team debates the dollar's range-bound future, the high bar for low-yielders, and the yen's woes. Conclusion: all roads lead to carry.
August 13, 2026
Short-term credit supply is surging, with Asset-Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) up nearly 20% YTD, driven by dealer financing needs.
August 7, 2026
The oil market absorbed a record supply shock through unexpected demand flexibility and a robust surge in non-OPEC+ production.
August 6, 2026
EM fixed income navigates core market shifts. While carry trades persist, US AI bond supply and yen intervention create diverging paths for LatAm.
The US Treasury delays coupon issuance increases to August 2027, signaling a greater reliance on T-bills to fill near-term funding gaps.
July 31, 2026
Iran could legally impose service fees in the Strait of Hormuz, leveraging international precedents and creating new geopolitical dynamics.
Analysis of Trump's Truth Social posts shows they can move interest rates, but the market impact decays as topics become less novel.
The dollar weakens on a dovish-perceived FOMC, amplified by Japanese MOF intervention. Analysts discuss limited BOJ options and muted BOE moves.
July 24, 2026
Geopolitical oil shocks have been absorbed by massive demand destruction, led by China, not inventory draws, keeping prices low—for now.
July 23, 2026
EM fixed income faces pressure from rising energy prices & US yields. Rates are vulnerable, FX resilient, & credit stable. Idiosyncratic stories offer opportunities.
July 22, 2026
J.P. Morgan experts analyze the Fed's new task forces, focusing on potential shifts in communication, balance sheet policy, and market impact.
July 20, 2026
Geopolitical tensions drive a gas-led surge in front-end inflation markets, while softer US data and hawkish central banks create cross-currents.
July 17, 2026
US-Iran tensions disrupt Hormuz, spiking LNG winter price risks. Gold faces near-term pressure but its long-term central bank demand story holds.
ECB rate hike pricing looks overdone amid energy risks. Analysts favor duration in Bunds, are cautious on EMU spreads, and see UK fiscal details far off.
FX markets face a tactical pause on the bullish USD view after soft CPI, but hawkish Fed rhetoric keeps the trend alive. FX carry remains king.
July 16, 2026
EM fixed income markets trade sideways amid conflicting signals. Frontier markets outperform, but risks from positioning and inflation are rising.
The US Defense Industrial Base, concentrated and slow, must integrate with commercial tech and adopt scalable production to counter modern threats.
July 10, 2026
Cash floods the front-end, softening repo rates. Strategists see massive inflows into money market and low-duration funds amid rising yields.
Geopolitical risks roil commodities. Russian refinery attacks tighten product markets, LNG diversions strain Europe, and US tariff policy drives copper.
FX strategists discuss market resilience to oil shocks, favor shorting the Swiss Franc, and flag major new risks for Yen shorts from potential GPIF intervention.
July 9, 2026
EM Fixed Income navigates Middle East risks. Analysts see contained oil impact, light positioning, and divergent opportunities in credit & Asia FX.
July 3, 2026
Mixed US payrolls weaken the dollar, boosting carry trades (HUF, GBP) and putting markets on high alert for potential yen intervention.
July 2, 2026
Gold's price driver has pivoted from energy risks to Fed policy. Its near-term upside is now capped, awaiting a materially dovish shift.
July 1, 2026
EM Fixed Income Outlook: Strong global growth and robust corporate earnings are set to anchor credit spreads, despite Fed and inflation risks.
June 26, 2026
Oil price forecast revised down. The market balanced via demand destruction, not inventory draws, signaling weaker prices and a return to $60s by 2H27.
US rates appear too low. Historical analysis from the late 90s suggests a hawkish Fed could push yields higher and flatten the yield curve.
EM fixed income outlook balances a hawkish Fed against lower oil prices, with investors cautiously constructive amid tight sovereign valuations.
JPM's Mid-Year FX Outlook: Bullish USD and non-dollar funded carry. Fed hike risk is real, driven by a tight labor market, not just oil.
June 19, 2026
JPMorgan's mid-year outlook pivots to a "bullish beta, bullish dollar" stance, driven by US exceptionalism and a more hawkish Fed.
FX Outlook 2H: Low volatility supports carry trades and bullish USD views, but key event risks ahead make defensive hedging strategies prudent.
Central Banks on Hold: Riksbank & BoE pause but signal future hikes. Norges Bank also holds but points to more tightening. UK politics watch.
June 18, 2026
A US-Iran deal eases commodity prices, but fundamental supply tightness in gas & aluminum persists, signaling a slow, prolonged recovery.
Global inflation break-evens fall on lower energy prices & hawkish central banks, but sticky core inflation provides a floor across the US, UK & EU.
June 15, 2026
EM Outlook 2H26: Resilient growth anchors assets despite tight valuations, but sticky inflation and hawkish central banks create challenges.
June 12, 2026
European rates are anchored by Mideast tensions, with the ECB & BoE pursuing cautious hikes. Expect range-bound yields and tactical trading ops.
Global commodities face a perfect storm. Low oil & gas inventories, limited Hormuz flows, and EU storage woes suggest future curves underprice risk.
Central banks are in focus. A hawkish Fed could boost a cheap dollar, while the BOJ risks a dovish surprise, setting the tone for key FX pairs.
June 11, 2026
UK politics & a hawkish BoE underpin GBP carry trades, frustrating shorts. Meanwhile, capital outflows reinforce a bearish outlook for the SEK.
June 5, 2026
Strong payroll data and a hawkish Fed shift drive expectations for higher rates, leading to an increased 10-year yield forecast to 4.70%.
Energy markets appear calm despite a major supply shock, but this stability is built on finite buffers like inventory draws and demand destruction.
Strong US payrolls bolster the dollar exceptionalism theme. Analysts advise fading euro strength from a hawkish ECB and using low-yielders as funders.
ECB's June hike is priced in, but the path beyond is cautious. Analysts eye opportunities in German Bunds over US rates amid UK political shifts.
May 29, 2026
The world is surprisingly managing a 9% drop in oil demand, not through recession but by substituting oil with cheaper, low-carbon alternatives.
May 28, 2026
EM fixed income shows resilience amid a growth-reflation shift, but US exceptionalism and idiosyncratic risks, like Senegal's debt crisis, loom.
May 22, 2026
The US dollar remains strong amid global growth dynamics. Yen faces intervention risk at 160, Aussie sentiment sours, and carry trades support NOK/GBP.
Geopolitical tensions reroute LNG to Asia, pausing gold's bull run. JPM sees the gas premium narrowing and gold targeting $6k post-conflict.
May 20, 2026
EM fixed income grapples with global rates repricing amid high inflation. Proactive central banks and strong credit technicals offer resilience.
May 18, 2026
North Asia's AI-fueled equity surge is booming, but crowded positioning, rising yields, and a puzzling FX disconnect pose key risks for investors.
May 15, 2026
FX strategists turn bullish on the USD amid US exceptionalism, lowering EUR/USD forecasts. Systematic signals confirm euro weakness. Sterling faces political headwinds.
May 14, 2026
EM fixed income navigates rising US inflation pressures and Fed policy shifts, while idiosyncratic political risks in Romania and South Africa emerge.
Frontier AI escalates cyber threats, creating a new asymmetry. OT systems are highly vulnerable, and fighting AI with AI is the new normal.
May 8, 2026
Fed on hold, US exceptionalism returns. Market navigates mixed signals, focusing on carry trades in FX and a divergence in US/EU rate outlooks.
Commodity inventories diverge: Europe's low gas levels demand higher prices, while a massive US copper stockpile creates market dislocation.
May 7, 2026
EM assets show asymmetric strength amid peace talks and solid fundamentals, while the impact of US data wanes. Colombia & Venezuela present key risks.
May 4, 2026
AI CapEx boom rivals global military spending, driving S&P 500 earnings and reshaping investment-grade credit markets with record issuance.
May 1, 2026
Fed's hawkish hold signals a potential for hikes, pushing yields higher. Markets now focus on the Treasury's May refunding amid policy uncertainty.
Global commodity markets face a severe supply shock. With inventories depleting, oil & metals are set for demand destruction via higher prices.
FX markets digest Japan's massive Yen intervention and a hawkish Fed, leading to a re-assessment of the bearish U.S. dollar view.
April 30, 2026
EM investors face a new phase of geopolitical risk. With tight valuations after a rally, a cautious, neutral stance is now warranted.
April 24, 2026
Middle East conflict halts Qatari gas flows, but market balances via US LNG, Asian demand cuts, and high coal stocks, averting a price crisis.
Global FX strategists discuss a constructive shift on Sterling, de-dollarization trends, and key upcoming DM central bank meetings.
April 23, 2026
EM markets rally on de-escalation hopes, but risks persist. Central banks are turning hawkish on inflation, driving idiosyncratic opportunities.
April 17, 2026
Post-ceasefire, persistent inflation shifts the FX landscape. The focus is now on high-yield carry trades in DM/EM, with a less bearish USD view.
Middle East conflict's aftermath: Aluminum faces a historic supply deficit while oil's recovery is faster but faces logistical hurdles.
April 10, 2026
FX markets react to a fragile ceasefire, questioning the rally's durability and the US dollar's safe-haven status amid lasting impacts.
April 9, 2026
New G-SIB & Basel III proposals offer modest relief for year-end repo volatility but won't transform markets as freed capital seeks higher returns.
April 2, 2026
Geopolitical conflict roils commodity markets. Oil inventories near minimums, LNG flows are halted, & critical aluminum supply is critically hit.
FX & EM strategists warn of market complacency on war risks, favoring dollar strength vs energy importers and selective, defensive EM positioning.
April 1, 2026
Experts analyze the Middle East conflict's cross-asset impact, detailing a rolling supply shock affecting oil, growth, risk assets, and FX.
March 31, 2026
EM Fixed Income navigates Mideast conflict uncertainty, with markets shifting focus from inflation to growth risks across rates, credit, and FX.
March 27, 2026
Middle East conflict halts Hormuz oil flow, creating a stock depletion crisis hitting Asia first. Gold shows signs of a safe-haven rebound.
Geopolitical tensions roil FX markets. Energy importers face headwinds while select carry trades (NOK, AUD) and broad dollar strength emerge.
March 20, 2026
Middle East conflict roils commodities. Oil surges past $110, Qatari LNG disruptions spike gas prices, and gold sees a temporary risk-off flush.
Soaring oil prices push central banks to hike rates, fueling stagflation fears and creating divergent, puzzling outcomes for global FX markets.
EM fixed income navigates Mideast conflict. Analysts remain cautious on credit, see value emerging in local markets, & eye idiosyncratic plays.
Global swap spread outlook: Geopolitics and central bank policies are key drivers, with regional technicals dictating unique opportunities.
March 13, 2026
Middle East conflict fuels inflation fears, pushing yields higher. Expect the Fed, ECB, and BOE to adopt a cautious 'wait-and-see' stance.
A Middle East conflict has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, causing unprecedented supply shocks in oil & metals, with prices surging.
Geopolitical tensions and energy shocks are forcing a tactical shift to a bullish US dollar view, challenging the previous medium-term bearish bias.
March 12, 2026
EM fixed income navigates Middle East conflict shock. Analysts weigh high oil prices, divergent FX/rates performance, and future opportunities.
Key takeaways from JPM's LevFin conference: AI financing boom vs. software sector distress, with rising default forecasts for leveraged loans.
March 6, 2026
Conflict closes the Strait of Hormuz, halting 20% of global oil and 17% of LNG, forcing production shutdowns and risking major price spikes.
FX strategists analyze currency picks for geopolitical escalation (NOK, CAD) vs. de-escalation (EUR, KRW) amidst a complex US dollar outlook.
February 27, 2026
Global FX outlook: Bearish dollar view holds despite near-term risks from China's CNY resistance, European political shifts, and AI's impact.
Eurobonds, UK politics & the Spring Statement. J.P. Morgan analyzes EU issuance, German yields, and a potential, but uncertain, BOE rate cut.
Global gas markets tighten as depleted European storage and a delayed Qatar project push 2026 price forecasts higher, despite recent price drops.
February 25, 2026
EM fixed income's positive base case, supported by strong fundamentals, faces near-term geopolitical risks and monitors cyclical AI jitters.
February 20, 2026
J.P. Morgan FX strategists stress-test their pro-cyclical views against US equity churn, Fed hawkishness, and geopolitical risks.
J.P. Morgan challenges the market's bullish oil outlook, citing soft fundamentals and temporary price drivers, forecasting a surplus and $60 Brent.
February 13, 2026
Commodity sell-off is a healthy correction, not a downturn. A supply-driven 'crocodile cycle' creates a buy opportunity in metals, especially gold.
The US dollar's weakness persists amid equity stress, a shifting yen narrative, European FX divergence, and rising US trade policy risks.
Divergent paths for Scandinavian rates: Norway faces persistent inflation delaying cuts, while Sweden's disinflation brings easing into view.
EM Fixed Income shows resilience, driven by a structural dollar downcycle and cyclical growth. Fund flows are in early stages of a major trend.
US & Eurex futures roll analysis: Positioning is the key driver, with record US WN longs, amid stable Fed & ECB policy expectations.
February 6, 2026
Global FX focuses on an APAC rotation, with a bullish Aussie view post-RBA hike, while fading the dovish BoE's impact on a resilient Sterling.
Gold remains a 'buy the dip' opportunity with a bullish outlook, while silver's froth and extreme volatility warrant a more cautious approach.
ECB holds steady while a dovish BoE signals cuts. Caution is advised on skinny Euro carry trades amid external risks and rising UK political noise.
February 5, 2026
The US crypto market structure bill is in limbo over stablecoin yield rules, as tokenized deposits and money funds emerge as key alternatives.
January 31, 2026
Commodity whiplash: Gold & copper see record volatility, oil surges on geopolitical risk, and extreme cold drains European gas reserves.
January 30, 2026
JPM strategists discuss a bearish dollar view, bullish metals (gold, copper), and key APAC FX opportunities in AUD, JPY, and CNY.
EM Fixed Income faces short-term volatility amid a bullish long-term FX cycle. Navigating technical signals and divergent policy is key.
January 29, 2026
J.P. Morgan analysts discuss a hawkish Fed, rising global yield pressures, and expectations for a steady US Treasury refunding announcement.
January 23, 2026
J.P. Morgan FX strategists are bearish USD amid a pro-cyclical boom, but caution that stretched EM positioning signals potential for a reversal.
Analysts grow cautious on euro area carry trades due to low volatility, while viewing recent UK political risk priced into gilts as premature.
JPM analysts forecast a modest widening bias for the Ester-SOFR basis in 1H26, driven by Fed policy repricing and issuance seasonality.
January 22, 2026
EM Fixed Income shows strong resilience to volatility, but key technical indicators signal overbought markets, warranting tactical caution.
January 16, 2026
Global 2026 bond issuance sees a US-driven net decline, but record Euro gross supply. DMOs pivot to shorter maturities amid QT pressures.
Political events shake FX markets. We dive into Fed independence threats, Japan's snap election, and the implications for USD, JPY, and CNY.
Commodities face a volatile start: US tariff threats ease on metals, cold weather spikes European gas, and oil prices remain stable despite Iran risks.
January 15, 2026
EM fixed income markets are ignoring geopolitical noise, driven by a strong cyclical macro outlook. Focus on fundamentals, not headlines.
A $200B GSE mortgage purchase could tighten spreads, but a wall of money manager selling and hedging uncertainty complicates the market outlook.
January 9, 2026
FX markets enter 2026 with a pro-cyclical bias, favoring a bearish USD, high-yield carry, and commodity exporters, especially in metals.
A regime change in Venezuela could reshape commodity markets, boosting oil and gold supply and significantly enhancing U.S. geopolitical influence.
December 19, 2025
JPM's 2026 outlook: Contained dollar weakness, a data-dependent Fed, and divergent central bank actions from a hawkish BOE to a dovish BOJ.
December 18, 2025
Fed's new Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) lower front-end yields, boost liquidity, and widen swap spreads amid messy post-shutdown data.
December 17, 2025
EM outlook for 2026 is constructive, favoring local markets. Key debates center on inflation, political risks, and tight credit spreads.
December 12, 2025
A global rates repricing and a dovish Fed weigh on the USD, with focus shifting to key central bank meetings and unusual US double payrolls.
Oil Outlook 2026-27: Abundant non-OPEC supply from offshore and global shale will pressure prices, forcing market rebalancing via producer cuts.
December 5, 2025
J.P. Morgan's 2026 Outlook: Bullish on metals, bearish on energy. The 'crocodile cycle' widens as supply dynamics drive a sharp divergence.
November 28, 2025
JPM's 2026 FX Outlook: Bearish on the dollar, bullish on high-beta. Key themes include a weaker yen, a hawkish kiwi, and AI's growing impact.
FX Outlook 2026: Subdued volatility favors carry trades via options, relative value plays, and selective positioning around election risks.
November 26, 2025
J.P. Morgan's 2026 EM outlook: A benign but nuanced year ahead. Expect stable growth, the end of broad rate cuts, and opportunities in FX.
Global Rates 2026 Outlook: Expect a shallow Fed easing cycle, a firm ECB hold, and a hiking BOJ, making carry the prevailing strategy.
November 21, 2025
JPMorgan's 2026 metals outlook: Bullish on gold ($5,000/oz) and copper ($12,500/t) amid supply constraints and strong investor demand.
November 18, 2025
Bond futures rollover analysis: US markets face a "data fog" due to a shutdown, while Eurex views are driven by positioning and curve dynamics.
November 14, 2025
FX outlook: Play Europe's growth via high-beta Scandis, not EUR. Sterling faces budget risks & Asian FX weakness persists despite interventions.
Global LNG faces a potential glut as 400 BCM of new supply by 2035 outpaces slowing demand in key markets and infrastructure-limited growth.
November 13, 2025
J.P. Morgan experts analyze the Latam election cycle's impact on FX, rates, and credit, expecting contained volatility vs. the last cycle.
November 12, 2025
2026 agri outlook: US-China trade deal spurs long-term optimism amid short-term volatility. Key shifts in soybeans, grains, and livestock.
November 7, 2025
Central Banks on hold: Riksbank & Norges Bank stand pat, but a dovish Bank of England signals potential rate cuts amid UK fiscal tightening.
FX markets face US shutdown risks & mixed data. The Euro remains pro-cyclical, Sterling weakness may pause tactically, & Canada's budget supports CAD.
November 6, 2025
EM markets navigate a directionless phase. EMFX tracks global risk via tech stocks, rate vol remains low, and record sovereign supply is met.
October 31, 2025
Central banks diverge: FOMC signals a potential pause, spooking markets, while the ECB remains comfortably on hold, dampening volatility.
Fed's hawkish surprise boosts the dollar, while BOJ's dovish hold weakens the yen. We dissect central bank divergence and its FX implications.
China's 15th five-year plan prioritizes energy security, boosting domestic output and Russian gas, signaling a peak for LNG demand by 2032.
October 30, 2025
EM outlook brightens with stronger growth, but a hawkish Fed and tight credit spreads require selective strategies in rates, FX, and credit.
October 28, 2025
Experts analyze Japan's "Sanae-nomics." Fiscal policy may be more disciplined than feared, but a BOJ hike is likely, creating opportunities in yen and equities.
October 24, 2025
J.P. Morgan experts predict an imminent end to the Fed's QT amid funding stress, while forecasting stable Treasury supply until late next year.
FX markets brace for a pivotal Bank of Japan meeting, with a potential surprise rate hike set to drive yen volatility, overshadowing other events.
New US/EU sanctions on Russian oil will maintain export volumes but squeeze profits by increasing costs, forcing deeper discounts.
October 23, 2025
EM markets trade on global beta amid a US data void, with investor focus shifting to Argentina's pivotal legislative elections this weekend.
Experts dissect stablecoins: a potential driver of USD demand and EM finance, but scalability, risk, and regulatory hurdles remain key.
October 20, 2025
Cocoa prices have corrected 40% YTD as the market crunch eases. Improved supply, demand destruction, and a normalizing futures structure signal a shift to surplus.
October 17, 2025
J.P. Morgan strategists dissect rates volatility, funding stress from scarce liquidity, and why ending QT won't solve the market's core issues.
FX markets grapple with US data blackout & bank stress, rising US-China tensions, and diverging Antipodean signals. Conviction remains low.
J.P. Morgan analysts discuss record 2026 German issuance, an overweight on EU SSAs, diverging Scandi rates, and sticky European inflation.
October 13, 2025
Takaichi's win sparks 'Abenomics 2.0' fears, driving yen weakness & equity rallies. Experts debate fiscal realities vs. BOJ independence.
October 10, 2025
Gold rallies on new sovereign demand. The dollar defies bears amid global political risks. Focus shifts to Japan's policy and EM carry trades.
October 8, 2025
EM sovereign default risk has eased significantly since 2023, with most at-risk nations now stable, though Maldives and Bolivia remain key concerns.
October 3, 2025
FX strategists see the US shutdown as reinforcing a bearish USD view, favoring shorts vs CAD and a constructive stance on JPY into the BOJ.
JP Morgan analysts discuss Fed policy, balance sheet outlook, and their impact on the Ester-Sofer basis, expecting a narrow trading range.
Agri-markets face volatility from US-China trade talks and a developing La Nina, with a mixed Q4 outlook favouring grains and sugar over soybeans.
October 1, 2025
EM fixed income outlook shifts as stronger global growth challenges the Fed easing narrative, testing asset class resilience and carry trades.
September 26, 2025
J.P. Morgan experts analyze money market shifts, why the Fed funds rate moved, and the push to adopt TGCR as a more robust policy benchmark.
FX markets are in a low-conviction, data-dependent state. The long-term dollar bearish view is challenged by US shutdown risks & payrolls data.
A major disruption at the Grasberg mine has flipped the copper market to a significant deficit, driving a bullish price forecast to $11,250/ton.
Riksbank and Norges Bank deliver 'hawkish cuts', raising the bar for future easing. Sweden's budget and UK political noise add complexity.
September 23, 2025
Post-conference, investors are optimistic but selective on Frontier Markets, favoring local markets and strong reform stories in Africa and LatAm.
September 22, 2025
The Fed's rate cut cycle begins. J.P. Morgan analysts explore 3 scenarios for commodities: Bronzy Locks, Recession, and Reflation.
September 19, 2025
A dovish Fed signals medium-term dollar weakness, favoring pro-cyclical currencies while fiscal risks and policy divergence drive European FX.
Central banks diverge: The Fed cuts but signals a steeper curve, the BOE holds hawkishly, and the BOJ prepares for a potential hike.
September 18, 2025
US inflation risks skew up on a dovish Fed & politics, while Euro area inflation is set to fall. JPM strategists see wider US breakevens.
Post-Fed, EM sentiment is constructive. Investors eye local markets & frontiers, but caution on tight credit spreads & US macro risks prevails.
