Many PE firms use backward-looking commercial due diligence, which is superficial and fails to assess a target's true growth potential. A more effective approach is go-to-market focused due diligence that evaluates the scalability of the future revenue engine, not just past performance.
Many late-stage investors focus heavily on data and metrics, forgetting that the quality of the leadership team remains as critical as in the seed stage. A new CEO, for example, can completely pivot a large company and reignite growth, a factor that quantitative analysis often misses.
While a strong business model is necessary, it doesn't generate outsized returns. The key to successful growth investing is identifying a Total Addressable Market (TAM) that consensus views as small but which you believe will be massive. This contrarian take on market size is where the real alpha is found.
Act as a strategic partner, not a vendor, by analyzing a prospect's annual reports, 10Ks, and shareholder letters. Use this research to inform them about strategic risks or business issues they haven't considered, immediately differentiating you from competitors who just ask basic discovery questions.
A common mistake in venture capital is investing too early based on founder pedigree or gut feel, which is akin to 'shooting in the dark'. A more disciplined private equity approach waits for companies to establish repeatable, business-driven key performance metrics before committing capital, reducing portfolio variance.
With fundraising rounds closing in weeks instead of months, investors can no longer conduct exhaustive diligence on every detail. The process has become more efficient by treating the current business model as table stakes and focusing limited time on underwriting the core thesis for future, non-obvious growth.
An expert reveals two shocking statistics: 80% of new founders fail their first diligence attempt, and 85% of early-stage investors don't perform confirmatory diligence. This highlights a massive, systemic weakness and inefficiency in the startup ecosystem, creating significant risk on both sides of the table.
The era of generating returns through leverage and multiple expansion is over. Future success in PE will come from driving revenue growth, entering at lower multiples, and adding operational expertise, particularly in the fragmented middle market where these opportunities are more prevalent.
A core investment framework is to distinguish between 'pull' companies, where the market organically and virally demands the product, and 'push' companies that have to force their solution onto the market. The former indicates stronger product-market fit and a higher potential for efficient, scalable growth.
Instead of an immediate post-close review, conduct retrospectives 6-12 months later. The true quality of due diligence and strategic fit can only be assessed after operating the business for a period. This delay provides deeper insights into what was missed or correctly identified, leading to more meaningful process improvements.
Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.