The era of generating returns through leverage and multiple expansion is over. Future success in PE will come from driving revenue growth, entering at lower multiples, and adding operational expertise, particularly in the fragmented middle market where these opportunities are more prevalent.
Alternative asset managers cannot simply create a product and expect private wealth channels to 'fill the bucket.' Success requires a significant, dedicated infrastructure for wholesaling, marketing, and advisor education across various dealer channels—a resource-intensive commitment that serves as a high barrier to entry.
Drawing on Charlie Munger's wisdom, investment management problems often stem from misaligned incentives. Instead of trying to change people's actions directly, leaders should redesign the incentive structure. Rational individuals will naturally align their behavior with well-constructed incentives that drive desired client outcomes.
In the early 2000s, when hedge funds operated like opaque family offices, Frontpoint Partners gained an edge by providing institutional-grade transparency. They offered detailed reporting on holdings, risk contributions, and processes, making institutions comfortable by speaking their language and demystifying the alternative investment 'black box'.
In a world of commoditized capital, offering a full suite of solutions creates a competitive advantage. By providing fund investments, co-investments, secondary liquidity, and portfolio company debt, a firm becomes an indispensable strategic partner to PE sponsors, generating proprietary and superior deal flow.
Instead of viewing the flood of private wealth as competition for deals, savvy institutional investors can capitalize on it. Opportunities exist to seed new retail-focused vehicles to gain economics, buy GP stakes in managers entering the wealth channel, or use new evergreen funds as a source of secondary market liquidity.
True investment opportunity isn't just identifying a good company; it's developing a perspective different from the consensus. The key is to analyze what's already baked into the price. Being bullish alongside everyone else offers little upside. The real value lies in a differentiated, well-researched viewpoint.
Future Standard's predecessor, Franklin Square, first built an incredible distribution engine selling third-party products to the wealth channel. Only after mastering distribution did it pivot to building its own "content"—in-house asset management capabilities—mirroring Netflix's evolution from DVDs to original programming.