An analysis of 547 Series B deals reveals two-thirds return less than 2x. This data demonstrates that a "spray and pray" strategy fails at this stage. The cost of misses is too high, and being even slightly worse than average in your picks will result in a failed fund. Discipline and picking are paramount.

The worst feeling for an investor is not missing a successful deal they didn't understand, but investing against their own judgment in a company that ultimately fails. This emotional cost of violating one's own conviction outweighs the FOMO of passing on a hot deal.

When making early-stage investments, avoid the common pitfall of betting on just a great idea or just a great founder. A successful investment requires deep belief in both. Every time the speaker has invested with only one of the two criteria met, they have lost money. The mandate must be 'two for two.'

Venture capital returns materialize over a decade, making short-term outputs like markups unreliable 'mirages.' Sequoia instead measures partners on tangible inputs. They are reviewed semi-annually on the quality of their decision-making process (e.g., investment memos) and their adherence to core team values, not on premature financial metrics.

An entrepreneur's success rate dramatically shifted from 0 for 12 to 5 for 5 not because his execution improved, but because his project selection did. He stopped chasing high-risk, "one in a million" moonshots (like building the next social network) and focused on businesses with clearer paths to revenue (e-commerce, services).

An expert reveals two shocking statistics: 80% of new founders fail their first diligence attempt, and 85% of early-stage investors don't perform confirmatory diligence. This highlights a massive, systemic weakness and inefficiency in the startup ecosystem, creating significant risk on both sides of the table.

The most critical decision in venture isn't the final investment vote but the mid-funnel choice of which companies get a deep look. The costliest errors are false negatives—great companies dismissed prematurely. Firms should therefore optimize process hygiene at this stage, implementing mandatory post-meeting debriefs to avoid these misses.

The venture capital return model has shifted so dramatically that even some multi-billion-dollar exits are insufficient. This forces VCs to screen for 'immortal' founders capable of building $10B+ companies from inception, making traditionally solid businesses run by 'mortal founders' increasingly uninvestable by top funds.

The majority of venture capital funds fail to return capital, with a 60% loss-making base rate. This highlights that VC is a power-law-driven asset class. The key to success is not picking consistently good funds, but ensuring access to the tiny fraction of funds that generate extraordinary, outlier returns.