There's a high risk that the EU, facing its own fiscal pressures, will not fulfill its promises of membership and reconstruction aid to Ukraine after the war. This could foster a powerful and destabilizing 'betrayal narrative' within Ukraine, which sees itself as having fought for Europe's security.

Despite the war being partly triggered by Ukraine's westward drift, Russia has accepted its EU path since early 2022. This is an underappreciated concession reflecting the reality that Russia has lost the contest for political and economic influence over government-controlled Ukraine.

The most significant challenge to a lasting peace is not agreeing on territorial lines but on the implementation sequence. Debates over whether a ceasefire, troop withdrawal, security guarantees, or referendums should come first create complex logistical and trust issues that could easily cause a deal to collapse.

A key tension exists within Ukraine's leadership regarding long-term strategy. One camp believes a longer war degrades Russia's economy and allows Ukraine's defense industry to integrate with Europe. The opposing view is that a prolonged conflict disproportionately damages Ukraine's own critical infrastructure first.

A swift peace deal in Ukraine might not be the preferred outcome for all its European partners. Some may see a longer conflict as a strategic opportunity to bolster their own military capabilities while Russia is occupied.

President Stubb uses Finland's peace with the USSR as a framework. Finland lost territory but preserved its nationhood. He argues Ukraine can secure an even better outcome through a peace deal: EU membership, massive reconstruction aid, and US security guarantees—a strategic victory that transcends battlefield lines.

European leaders have shifted from seeing Ukraine as a moral cause to a vital strategic asset. Ukraine's battle-tested army is viewed as Europe's "shield," and its innovations in drone warfare are seen as Europe's future "arsenal," especially amid doubts about US security guarantees.

Ukraine should aim to become the 'South Korea' of Europe. This means accepting a negotiated peace or armistice that secures its independence and sovereignty over most of its territory, even if it doesn't reclaim everything. It can then rebuild into a prosperous democracy, creating a stark contrast with a decaying Russia.

Contrary to widespread fears that European support for Ukraine would wane, resolve has actually stiffened. Europe has stepped up to replace American financial aid and has become an increasingly vital security partner, demonstrating a surprising resilience and commitment to the conflict despite its long duration.