Contrary to popular hope, a scenario where Ukraine fully expels Russia and regains all territory is a 'total fantasy.' Based on historical precedent, the war has only two realistic outcomes: a Ukrainian collapse under sustained pressure or a compromise peace that grants Russia de facto control of some territory.

Despite military momentum against Russia, Ukrainian society is fracturing internally. Public discontent is not primarily driven by war exhaustion but by a growing distrust of institutions, elite corruption scandals implicating the presidency, and perceived injustices in military conscription policies.

A swift peace deal in Ukraine might not be the preferred outcome for all its European partners. Some may see a longer conflict as a strategic opportunity to bolster their own military capabilities while Russia is occupied.

Ukraine's most realistic theory of success is not reclaiming all territory militarily, but leveraging its advantages to stabilize the front and inflict unsustainable casualties and economic costs on Russia. This strategy aims to make the war so futile for Moscow that it forces a favorable negotiated settlement.

Ukraine is observing how Iran uses its control over a strategic chokepoint to gain global leverage. This could inspire Ukraine to shift from targeting domestic Russian infrastructure to attacking critical oil and petrochemical export hubs to force the world's attention.

The invasion has crippled Russia's long-term prospects. It has suffered generational setbacks in economic and demographic development, diminished its global reputation, and triggered a massive military buildup in Europe, worsening its security position.

Ukraine should aim to become the 'South Korea' of Europe. This means accepting a negotiated peace or armistice that secures its independence and sovereignty over most of its territory, even if it doesn't reclaim everything. It can then rebuild into a prosperous democracy, creating a stark contrast with a decaying Russia.

The idea that Ukraine must accept a peace deal because the war is "unwinnable" is a flawed narrative that mirrors Russian propaganda. This perspective overlooks Russia's massive daily casualties and straining wartime economy. The war is unsustainable, but arguably more so for Russia than for Ukraine.

With the goal of retaking all territory now unrealistic, Ukraine's military command has adopted a new strategy: inflict such high monthly casualties on Russian forces (40-50k) that Putin cannot sustain recruitment levels, ultimately forcing him to seek a ceasefire due to domestic pressure.