AI adoption isn't linear. A small, 1% improvement in model capability can be the critical step that clears a usability hurdle, transforming a "toy" into a production-ready tool. This creates sudden, discontinuous leaps in market adoption that are hard to predict from capability trend lines alone.

Venture capital lionizes companies with immediate, steep growth ("high slope"). However, many of the most significant, defensible companies like Figma are "area under the curve" stories. They endure a long build phase before emerging as dominant, creating more long-term value than companies with fast but less defensible growth.

Founders should anticipate that truly new ideas are first dismissed as "crazy," then accepted as "novel," and finally deemed "obvious." Understanding this progression helps entrepreneurs endure the initial skepticism and see it as a sign they are on the right track.

We overestimate technology's short-term impact (the hype peak) and then overcorrect into skepticism (the trough of disillusionment). The real, transformative changes happen slowly and quietly after most people have stopped paying attention.

Investor Jason Calacanis describes the early Oculus adoption pattern as "Try, oh my, goodbye." Users have an initial mind-blowing experience, but the device then gets stored in a closet, failing to become a daily habit. This highlights the critical challenge for new hardware: converting initial novelty into sustained engagement.

Many MedTech companies mistakenly believe a clinically superior product will automatically win market share. This is false. Market adoption is not automatic; it must be designed as intentionally as the product itself to overcome the powerful inertia of the status quo and make the market mentally ready for change.

An analysis of the 20 most successful soft drinks of a decade revealed it took an average of seven years to be considered a success. However, most corporations only give new products a year, or even a single quarter, to prove themselves, killing them prematurely.

Market dynamics are not static. What was once a 'wave'—a new, urgent problem for everyone—can evolve into a series of 'dams' and eventually a stable 'river.' A common mistake is to build for the hype of a wave after it has crested, by which point it no longer provides the same opportunity for explosive growth.

The volume of discussion about a technology is highest during its transition from novelty to ubiquity. Once fully integrated, conversation fades even as usage is at its peak. Attention follows the rate of change (derivative), not the absolute level of adoption.