Market dynamics are not static. What was once a 'wave'—a new, urgent problem for everyone—can evolve into a series of 'dams' and eventually a stable 'river.' A common mistake is to build for the hype of a wave after it has crested, by which point it no longer provides the same opportunity for explosive growth.
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Focusing only on trendy sectors leads to intense competition where the vast majority of startups fail. True opportunity lies in contrarian ideas that others overlook or dismiss, as these markets have fewer competitors.
To determine if a startup will succeed, analyze the sequence of events. Did organic customer demand and behavior exist before the startup created its supply (product, messaging)? If the startup is trying to force motion with its supply, it's a sign of conjuring demand and a higher risk of failure.
A 'dam' represents pent-up demand where users are frustrated and merely 'coping' with the status quo. Introducing a 10x better solution, often via new tech, doesn't create demand; it bursts the dam, releasing a flood of customers who see it as a magical fix for a problem they already have.
In fast-moving industries like AI, achieving product-market fit is not a final destination. It's a temporary state that only applies to the current 'chapter' of the market. Founders must accept that their platform will need to evolve significantly and be rebuilt for the next chapter to maintain relevance and leadership.
Successful startups tap into organic customer needs that already exist—a 'pull' from the market. In contrast, 'conjuring demand' involves a founder trying to convince a market of a new worldview without prior evidence. This is a much harder and less reliable path to building a business.
In a gold rush like AI, the shared 'why now' forces many founders into a pure speed-based strategy. This is a dangerous game, as it often lacks long-term defensibility and requires an incredibly hard-charging approach that not all teams can sustain.
In rapidly evolving markets like AI, founders often fall into psychological traps, such as feeling they are too late or that funding has dried up. However, the current environment offers unprecedented organic user demand and technological leverage, making it an ideal time to build if you can ignore the noise.
A common startup failure is building a solution for a problem that doesn't have meaningful pre-existing demand. This happens when founders start with a product vision instead of observing market pull. They arrive with a fully-built 'submarine' but find no 'water,' looking foolish for not checking for demand first.
Founders mistakenly believe large funding rounds create market pull. Instead, raise minimally to survive until you find a 'wave' or 'dam.' Once demand is so strong you can't keep up with demo requests, then raise a large round to scale operations and capture the opportunity.