Russia's interests are served by an isolated Iran that doesn't compete in European gas markets or its Central Asian sphere of influence. In contrast, China would gain from a stable, economically powerful Iran that can maximize its energy output and open its large market to global commerce.

To circumvent sanctions on its oil-based economy, Iran has boosted agricultural exports. It now supplies 90% of the cauliflowers, tomatoes, and watermelons imported by the United Arab Emirates, demonstrating a strategic economic pivot to maintain revenue streams amid international pressure.

While Venezuela is a minor oil supplier to China, Iran is a substantial source of crude and heavy oil used for infrastructure projects like asphalt. A regime change in Iran could lead to the country selling its oil to the West instead of China, creating a significant economic and geopolitical destabilization for Beijing.

The recent unrest originated with merchants in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, a group that prioritizes stability. Their protests highlight the crisis's economic roots: inability to access hard currency for imports, rampant inflation, and collapsing consumer demand, making business untenable for even multi-million dollar traders.

Protests in Iran, if they disrupt the regime, could halt cheap oil flows to China. This would force China to buy from more expensive, US-friendly markets, strengthening the US dollar's global dominance and isolating anti-Western powers without direct US intervention.

China's independent refiners, known as "Shandong teapots," benefit significantly from sanctioned oil. They purchase discounted crude from countries like Venezuela, boosting their margins and supporting local economies. This trade is often conducted in renminbi, furthering China's goal of de-dollarization in energy markets.

While Venezuela was a key oil supplier and geopolitical asset, it was also seen as a failed investment ("money gone to waste"). Iran, by contrast, is a core strategic partner in China's "axis of ill will" against U.S. influence. A regime collapse in Iran would be a far more significant blow to China's global strategy.

The primary impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil is not a reduction in supply but a compression of profit margins. Russia is forced to offer deeper discounts, estimated at $3-$5 per barrel below pre-sanction levels, to compensate buyers for increased logistical and financial risks, ensuring export flows remain stable.

Despite his stated goal of lowering oil prices, President Trump's aggressive sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia have removed significant supply from the market. This creates logistical bottlenecks and "oil on water" buildups, effectively tightening the market and keeping prices higher than they would be otherwise.