While Venezuela is a minor oil supplier to China, Iran is a substantial source of crude and heavy oil used for infrastructure projects like asphalt. A regime change in Iran could lead to the country selling its oil to the West instead of China, creating a significant economic and geopolitical destabilization for Beijing.

The public justification for the U.S. operation in Venezuela focused on drugs and oil, but the larger, under-discussed strategic threat is the presence of American adversaries in the Western Hemisphere. China controls Venezuelan mining, Iran operates drone facilities, and Russia provides radar systems, creating a significant geopolitical challenge in America's 'backyard' that the official narrative ignores.

Protests in Iran, if they disrupt the regime, could halt cheap oil flows to China. This would force China to buy from more expensive, US-friendly markets, strengthening the US dollar's global dominance and isolating anti-Western powers without direct US intervention.

While a $10 billion loss on Venezuelan loans is substantial, it's a small fraction of the over $2 trillion China has lent via its Belt and Road Initiative. For Beijing, the erosion of a key strategic foothold in Latin America is a far greater concern than the financial write-down.

A clean, external removal of Iran's leadership, similar to what occurred in Venezuela, is unlikely. Iran's population is nearly four times larger, it is geographically distant, and the American political psyche associates the Middle East with costly military entanglements, creating a much higher barrier to intervention.

While Chinese firms are anxious about their Venezuelan assets, their history in Iraq provides a roadmap. After the 2003 US-led invasion, Chinese companies were initially worried but eventually became the largest investors in Iraq's oil industry. This suggests a long-term strategy of patience and high risk tolerance to outlast political instability.

While the operation occurred in Venezuela, its primary psychological impact may be on Iran. The Iranians are reportedly "terrified," viewing the successful removal of a hostile leader as a direct threat and a plausible preview of future U.S. action against them.

The conflict is not primarily about oil or drugs, but a strategic move to reassert U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere. As China solidifies its influence in the East, the U.S. is 'drawing a line' to counter China's partnerships (like with Venezuela) in its own sphere of influence.

Contrary to popular belief, China's influence in Venezuela is primarily economic, not strategic. They are a key consumer of oil but do not control the industry or the government. Russia, in fact, has a more embedded military and strategic presence in the country.