The best leaders act on incomplete information, understanding that 100% certainty is a myth that only exists in hindsight. The inability to decide amid ambiguity—choosing inaction—is a greater failure than making the wrong call.

Howard Marks argues that declaring uncertainty is a sign of strength, not weakness. In important settings, saying "I don't know" signals that your ego is in check and thinking is robust. It makes people trust you more, not less, because it shows intellectual humility.

In fast-growing, chaotic companies, leaders often feel pressured to have all the answers. This is a trap. Your real job is not to know everything, but to be skilled at finding answers by bringing the right people together. Saying 'I don't know, let's figure it out' is a sign of strength, not weakness.

A single decision-making style is a liability. Yale's Dean Kerwin Charles advises making operational decisions immediately while taking a slower, more contemplative approach to major strategic issues. This adaptability is key to effective leadership.

Instead of waiting for a complete picture, courageous leaders take small, experimental actions to 'sense make' their way through ambiguity. This process, observed in emergency responders, involves acting, observing cues, and rapidly iterating. It is about learning by doing, not planning everything perfectly in advance.

Agency leaders often delay decisions for fear of being wrong, creating significant opportunity costs and mental distraction. This paralysis is more damaging than the risk of an incorrect choice. Any decision is better than indecision because it provides momentum and learning, a lesson especially critical for small or solo-led agencies.

In a crisis, the public knows no one has all the answers. Attempting to project absolute certainty backfires. A more effective strategy is "confident humility": transparently sharing information gaps and explaining that plans will evolve as new data emerges, which builds credibility.

In extreme uncertainty like a fire or nuclear incident, waiting for perfect information is impossible. Effective leaders take small, iterative actions to gather data and update their strategy in real-time. This approach of 'acting your way into knowing' is more effective than trying to know everything before acting.

To prepare for low-probability, high-impact events, leaders should resist the immediate urge to create action plans. Instead, they must first creatively explore "good, bad, and ugly" scenarios without the pressure for an immediate, concrete solution. This exploration phase is crucial for resilience.