Like basketball coaches who make players analyze game film to spot momentum shifts, business leaders can use 'what-if' teams. By regularly gaming out hypothetical market shifts or competitor actions, they train the organization to recognize and seize real opportunities when they arise.
During product discovery, Amazon teams ask, "What would be our worst possible news headline?" This pre-mortem practice forces the team to identify and confront potential weak points, blind spots, and negative outcomes upfront. It's a powerful tool for looking around corners and ensuring all bases are covered before committing to build.
Act like an investor with your time by forming hypotheses about which industries are most likely to experience your key compelling events. By predicting where M&A or new market entries will occur (e.g., in telecom), you can proactively focus your territory on high-probability accounts before events are announced.
The 'fake press release' is a useful vision-setting tool, but a 'pre-mortem' is more tactical. It involves writing out two scenarios before a project starts: one detailing exactly *why* it succeeded (e.g., team structure, metrics alignment) and another detailing *why* it failed. This forces a proactive discussion of process and risks, not just the desired outcome.
Using large language models, companies can create 'digital twins' of team members based on their work patterns. This allows managers to run 'what-if' scenarios—testing different team compositions or workflows in a simulation to predict outcomes and flag potential issues before making real-world changes.
Adaptable organizations are built on curiosity. This is nurtured not by formal courses, but by leaders encouraging small, daily acts of connecting disparate ideas (e.g., "What did you see this weekend and how can we apply it?"). This builds the collective "mental muscle" for navigating disruption.
Employees often reserve their best strategic thinking for complex hobbies. By intentionally designing the work environment with clear rules, goals, and compelling narratives—like a well-designed game—leaders can unlock this latent strategic talent and make work more engaging.
Great leaders don't wait for a lucky break ('spark') to create momentum. They proactively build the foundation for it by fostering a collaborative culture, recruiting team-oriented talent, and preparing mentally to recognize and seize opportunities that others might miss.
Intuition is not a mystical gut feeling but rapid pattern recognition based on experience. Since leaders cannot "watch game tape," they must build this mental library by systematically discussing failures and setbacks. This process of embedding learnings sharpens their ability to recognize patterns in future situations.
To prepare for low-probability, high-impact events, leaders should resist the immediate urge to create action plans. Instead, they must first creatively explore "good, bad, and ugly" scenarios without the pressure for an immediate, concrete solution. This exploration phase is crucial for resilience.
Before starting a project, ask the team to imagine it has failed and write a story explaining why. This exercise in 'time travel' bypasses optimism bias and surfaces critical operational risks, resource gaps, and flawed assumptions that would otherwise be missed until it's too late.