Authoritarian leaders who publicly mock or dismiss threats risk triggering a military response driven by personal pride. Venezuelan President Maduro's televised dancing was reportedly perceived by the Trump administration as calling their bluff, demonstrating how avoiding the appearance of being a 'chump' can become a primary motivator for military action.

Even when facing severe international backlash, a US president's most controversial foreign policy actions are ultimately limited by unpopularity within their own country and party, which creates significant political and practical consequences that outweigh pressure from allies.

The core driver of a 'Thucydides Trap' conflict is the psychological distress experienced by the ruling power. For the U.S., the challenge to its identity as '#1' creates a disorienting fear and paranoia, making it prone to miscalculation, independent of actual military or economic shifts.

Soviet leaders who lived through WWII understood the unpredictability of direct conflict and preferred proxy wars. Vladimir Putin, in contrast, has consistently used direct "hot wars"—from Chechnya to Georgia to Ukraine—as a primary tool to consolidate power and boost his domestic popularity.

Nations like the US and USSR prolong involvement in failed conflicts like Afghanistan primarily due to "reputational risk." The goal shifts from achieving the original mission to avoiding the perception of failure, creating an endless commitment where objectives continually morph.

In politics, the perception of strength and decisiveness can be more electorally powerful than being correct but appearing weak or compromising. This principle explains why a political party might maintain a hardline stance that is unpopular, as the image of strength itself resonates more with voters than the nuance of being “right.”

If a leader concludes that historic allies are acting against their nation's interests (e.g., prolonging a war), they may see those alliances as effectively void. This perception of betrayal becomes the internal justification for dramatic, unilateral actions like dismantling NATO or seizing strategic assets.

A key British intelligence failure before the Falklands War was assuming Argentina's junta would be constrained by factors like public opinion. This tendency to project democratic logic onto autocratic regimes was repeated with Putin's invasion of Ukraine, leading to surprise despite mounting evidence of intent.

Despite widespread internal protests and instability, history shows that an external attack is one of the few things that can unify the Iranian population. A potential Israeli strike, meant to weaken the regime, could backfire by creating a 'rally 'round the flag' effect that shores up support for the Ayatollah.