Japan studies the Falklands War for insights into defending islands, highlighting the immense challenges of amphibious assaults. While the Falklands lacked a large civilian population like Taiwan, the operational difficulties of maritime island invasions offer a direct, historical parallel for a potential conflict.
Contrary to expectations of a high-tech war, the conflict in Ukraine demonstrates enduring principles of warfare. The superiority of defense over offense, the difficulty of breakthroughs without air power, and the tendency toward attrition are all classic lessons that would be recognizable to strategists from past major conflicts.
A key British intelligence failure before the Falklands War was assuming Argentina's junta would be constrained by factors like public opinion. This tendency to project democratic logic onto autocratic regimes was repeated with Putin's invasion of Ukraine, leading to surprise despite mounting evidence of intent.
A leader's openness to outside advice is conditional. It is only at moments when they feel uncertain or don't know the way forward that they are truly receptive to new ideas. Leaders who have already fixed their views or are confident in their own judgment will often ignore even compelling counsel.
An act of aggression can become so popular domestically that leaders feel compelled to see it through, even if initially intended as a negotiating tactic. The Argentine junta found the Falklands invasion was "the most popular thing they'd ever done," trapping them in a conflict they couldn't easily abandon.
Decision-makers in prolonged crises suffer from extreme fatigue, a critical factor rarely captured in historical accounts. The mental and physical exhaustion from constant pressure, as seen in the Cuban Missile Crisis or modern Ukraine, degrades judgment and the ability to process information, yet remains an invisible variable in analysis.
Despite total access to archives and individuals for his Falklands history, Lawrence Freedman notes historical records are never complete. Much is decided via undocumented channels like phone calls or WhatsApp, and participants' memories are blurred by stress, making it impossible to fully capture the nuance of decisions.
The SALT I treaty, particularly its limitation of anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems, succeeded because both the US and USSR recognized the technology was unworkable. It was far cheaper to overwhelm any defensive system with more offensive weapons, making the supremacy of offense a technological reality that drove the agreement.
The era following Xi Jinping's rule could be more dangerous than his tenure itself. A successor, potentially from a military junta, might launch a conflict—mirroring Deng Xiaoping's 1979 Vietnam War—to assert their legitimacy and consolidate power over the party and the PLA, creating a highly volatile situation.
Nuclear deterrence works because the weapons provide a "crystal ball effect." Unlike WWI leaders who couldn't foresee 1918's carnage, modern leaders have a stark, pessimistic view of a nuclear war's outcome. This shared vision of guaranteed calamity creates enormous incentives to avoid starting such a conflict.
To avoid getting bogged down, do not wait until all research is finished to begin writing. The writing process itself is a tool for discovery; it reveals what you actually need to know, helps refine your core questions, and keeps the topic engaging, preventing the boredom that comes from exhaustive upfront preparation.