Western investors visiting emerging markets often invest in businesses they personally enjoy in affluent areas. This is a critical error, as these ventures aren't scalable to the broader local population with a much lower average income. The real opportunity lies in the mass market.
The developed market private investing model of single-asset-class funds (PE, credit, infra) is poorly suited for emerging markets. The deal flow in these regions is insufficient to support such specialized funds, leading to poor capital deployment and failing GPs.
Focusing only on trendy sectors leads to intense competition where the vast majority of startups fail. True opportunity lies in contrarian ideas that others overlook or dismiss, as these markets have fewer competitors.
While international markets have more volatility and lower trust, their biggest advantage is inefficiency. Many basic services are underdeveloped, creating enormous 'low-hanging fruit' opportunities. Providing a great, reliable service in a market where few things work well can create immense and durable value.
A powerful EM strategy involves identifying businesses with proven, powerful models from developed markets, like American Tower. Local EM investor bases may not be familiar with the model's potential, creating an opportunity to buy these companies at a displaced valuation before their predictable results drive multiple expansion.
Countries like Poland, which transitioned to capitalism relatively recently, are under-followed by global investors. This creates opportunities to find "boring compounder" stocks, such as supermarket chain Dino Polska, at attractive valuations. These businesses are often run by outsider CEOs and are insulated from global hype cycles like AI.
For founders in emerging markets like Africa, the most valuable asset from a community is not capital but access to good product judgment, taste, and peers. This cultivates the ability to create globally meaningful products where established tech ecosystems don't exist.
Western investors are unskilled in navigating environments where governments actively manipulate savings and capital allocation. Portfolio managers from emerging markets like Brazil and South Africa, where financial repression is the norm, possess the necessary experience to thrive.
Western teams often focus on technology, but the highest-volume users of real-world crypto applications like stablecoins and perpetuals are in Asia and Latin America. Their adoption patterns—not theories from New York or Silicon Valley—dictate which solutions ultimately succeed.
Within any emerging market country, the annual return dispersion between equities, local debt, and hard currency debt is enormous. An investor who can consistently pick the winning asset class, even just over 50% of the time, will generate superior long-term returns due to this massive performance gap.
Unlike Western PE where tasks are outsourced to bankers and lawyers, investors in markets like Vietnam must be entrepreneurial. They need to own every part of the deal process—legal, operational, financial—to navigate local nuances and manage risk effectively, rather than just coordinating experts.