For D1 Capital, the primary risk in China isn't economic but political. The government's ability to arbitrarily influence resource allocation, punish successful companies, and eliminate entire sectors without due process creates an unacceptable level of uncertainty for capital allocators, regardless of how cheap valuations become.

Active management is more viable in emerging markets than in the US. The largest EM ETF (EEM) has a high 0.72% expense ratio, the universe of stocks is twice as large as the US, and analyst coverage is sparse. This creates significant opportunities for skilled stock pickers to outperform passive strategies.

After being 'shunned by the world for 10 to 15 years,' emerging market assets are benefiting from a slow-moving, structural diversification away from heavily-owned U.S. assets. This long-term trend provides a background source of demand and support, contributing to the asset class's current resilience against short-term volatility.

Many LPs focus solely on backing the 'best people.' However, a manager's chosen strategy and market (the 'neighborhood') is a more critical determinant of success. A brilliant manager playing a difficult game may underperform a good manager in a structurally advantaged area.

The central task for capital allocators is to identify investment managers with a proven, durable edge—be it in sourcing, operations, or strategy—that allows them to consistently capture alpha in markets that are otherwise becoming more efficient.

Contrary to historical trends, policymakers in key African nations are demonstrating a sustained commitment to economic reforms. This resilience, forged by recent global shocks, is signaling to investors that current reform paths are more enduring, reducing perceived political risk and increasing interest in the region's sovereigns.

In an era of financial repression and heavy government intervention, the most effective investment strategy is to identify sectors receiving direct government support. By positioning capital near these "money spigots," investors can benefit from policies designed to manage the economy, regardless of traditional market fundamentals.

Because emerging market cycles are so unpredictable and violent, any mid-sized manager focused on a single asset class or region is not questioning *if* they will go out of business, but *when*. Business model diversification is the only path to long-term survival.

Within any emerging market country, the annual return dispersion between equities, local debt, and hard currency debt is enormous. An investor who can consistently pick the winning asset class, even just over 50% of the time, will generate superior long-term returns due to this massive performance gap.