Focusing only on trendy sectors leads to intense competition where the vast majority of startups fail. True opportunity lies in contrarian ideas that others overlook or dismiss, as these markets have fewer competitors.
Related Insights
The founder predicts that hyper-specific vertical AI solutions are too easy to replicate. While they may find initial traction, they lack a durable moat. The stronger, long-term business is building horizontal tools that empower users to solve their own complex problems.
To be truly contrarian, find what's becoming the new "consensus playbook" among startups and bet against it. DoorDash chose a simple marketplace model when competitors were pursuing the trendy but complex "full-stack" ghost kitchen model, which ultimately proved to be the right decision.
Large companies often focus R&D on high-ticket items, neglecting smaller accessory categories. This creates a market gap for focused startups to innovate and solve specific problems that bigger players overlook, allowing them to build a defensible niche.
Obsessing over creating a new market category is often a mistake. Data shows the vast majority of successful public tech companies compete within established categories. It's more effective to get "invited to the party" by using a known category label and then winning with a sharp, differentiated value proposition.
To identify non-consensus ideas, analyze the founder's motivation. A founder with a deep, personal reason for starting their company is more likely on a unique path. Conversely, founders who "whiteboarded" their way to an idea are often chasing mimetic, competitive trends.
Large platforms focus on massive opportunities right in front of them ('gold bricks at their feet'). They consciously ignore even valuable markets that require more effort ('gold bricks 100 feet away'). This strategic neglect creates defensible spaces for startups in those niche areas.
The belief that you must find an untapped, 'blue ocean' market is a fallacy. In a connected world, every opportunity is visible and becomes saturated quickly. Instead of looking for a secret angle, focus on self-awareness and superior execution within an existing market.
Pursuing a genuinely non-obvious idea feels risky, not just uncertain. This feeling of danger—the fear of wasting years on a potential failure—is often a signal that you're working on something truly contrarian and valuable, as it deters others.
Many founders fail not from a lack of market opportunity, but from trying to serve too many customer types with too many offerings. This creates overwhelming complexity in marketing, sales, and product. Picking a narrow niche simplifies operations and creates a clearer path to traction and profitability.
