Western teams often focus on technology, but the highest-volume users of real-world crypto applications like stablecoins and perpetuals are in Asia and Latin America. Their adoption patterns—not theories from New York or Silicon Valley—dictate which solutions ultimately succeed.
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The 24/7 nature of perpetual futures (“perps”) is attractive to traditional markets for assets like the S&P 500. This shift requires 24/7 settlement infrastructure, making stablecoins essential collateral and creating a massive, non-speculative demand driver for them.
Stablecoin market growth isn't driven by a single factor. Analysis reveals it has been fastest during periods when both Bitcoin prices and the broad US dollar index are appreciating simultaneously. This dual correlation points to a specific macro environment that is most conducive to stablecoin adoption.
The valuation gap between Airwallex ($8B) and Ramp ($32B), which have comparable revenues, demonstrates a tangible "Asia discount." Investors significantly mark down companies with a strong presence or founding nexus in Asia due to perceived geopolitical and data security risks.
For hundreds of millions in developing nations, stablecoins are not an investment vehicle but a capital preservation tool. Their core value is providing a simple hedge against high-inflation local currencies by pegging to the USD, a use case that far outweighs the desire for interest yield in those markets.
The stablecoin market is mature, so new entrants cannot compete on technology alone. To succeed, they must be launched by an entity with a massive built-in user base, such as a social media giant or a large multinational, making standalone stablecoin startups effectively zeros.
Unlike assets like commodities or private markets where institutions pioneer adoption, cryptocurrencies saw retail investors lead the charge. Institutions are only now slowly beginning to explore allocations, reversing the historical trend of top-down financial innovation.
A core investment framework is to distinguish between 'pull' companies, where the market organically and virally demands the product, and 'push' companies that have to force their solution onto the market. The former indicates stronger product-market fit and a higher potential for efficient, scalable growth.
Data showing average stablecoin transaction sizes of only $11,000 to $14,000 indicates that current usage in emerging markets is not dominated by large-scale corporate payments. This points to a user base more focused on retail, smaller B2B, or crypto trading activities, rather than wholesale cross-border finance.
Contrary to the popular narrative, the dominant use case for stablecoins in emerging markets is not remittances or savings. Survey data suggests overwhelmingly (88% in one study) that they are used as an entry and exit point for the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, reframing their role in EM finance.
Kyle Samani has completely abandoned the thesis that crypto's future lies in non-financial consumer dApps (Web3). He now believes the thesis is "just wrong." Instead, crypto's primary role in developed nations will be as invisible financial plumbing, while its main user-facing application is for international users who need access to stablecoins.
