A former NSC official, despite decades of experience, was "blown away" by the U.S. special forces operation to capture Maduro. He had previously concluded such a raid in a dense, hostile urban environment was too risky, underscoring the exceptional capabilities of U.S. forces.
Related Insights
A former NSC official reflects that the U.S. missed a key window of opportunity after Hugo Chavez's death. By choosing to "manage" the situation rather than applying strong pressure on a then-unpopular Nicolas Maduro, the U.S. lost a chance to shape a different outcome.
The successful removal of Maduro is a significant failure for Cuban intelligence services, which have a long history of protecting allied regimes in Latin America. For decades, Cuba has 'punched above its weight,' providing a security shield to leaders like Maduro. This event raises questions about the decline of their once-feared capabilities.
The removal of Maduro was a technological showcase, employing cyber tools to knock out power and air defenses, communications jamming, and suicide drones. This demonstrates a significant evolution in U.S. military capabilities beyond conventional special operations.
The raid on Maduro is presented as an opportunity for special forces units to demonstrate their value to an administration wary of large, troop-intensive occupations. This "surgical strike" model offers a politically palatable alternative to the costly nation-building efforts of the 2000s in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The U.S. operation to capture Maduro serves as a real-world case study for China's potential 'decapitation' strike against Taiwan. China has already rehearsed such scenarios in mock-ups of Taipei's presidential palace. This event demonstrates the feasibility of a quick, surgical strike, which is more aligned with the CCP's goals than a costly amphibious invasion.
Authoritarian leaders who publicly mock or dismiss threats risk triggering a military response driven by personal pride. Venezuelan President Maduro's televised dancing was reportedly perceived by the Trump administration as calling their bluff, demonstrating how avoiding the appearance of being a 'chump' can become a primary motivator for military action.
The US has established a precedent of using military force to apprehend fugitives abroad based on domestic legal actions, as seen with Noriega in 1989 and Maduro now. This practice blurs the line between law enforcement and an act of war, creating a thin legal justification for military intervention without traditional congressional or international approval.
The "absolutely clinical" US raid to capture Venezuela's president is lauded as a military success. However, historical precedents from Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003 show that initial military prowess in toppling a regime is no guarantee of long-term strategic success, which depends on far more complex political factors.
While the operation occurred in Venezuela, its primary psychological impact may be on Iran. The Iranians are reportedly "terrified," viewing the successful removal of a hostile leader as a direct threat and a plausible preview of future U.S. action against them.
The US action to remove Maduro was not a traditional regime change. The goal was to eliminate the leader personally while leaving his party and government apparatus largely intact, suggesting a strategic choice to avoid the instability of a full power vacuum.