The IRGC increasingly wields the true power in Iran, while the Supreme Leader's role is becoming more symbolic. He serves as a "sacred totem" and a "lightning rod for criticism" but is ultimately a facilitator of IRGC influence rather than a check on its power.

The bombing campaign, aimed at regime change, could be counterproductive. Prior to the conflict, Iran's regime was seen as unpopular and frail, potentially heading for collapse or moderation. The external attack risks creating a rally-round-the-flag effect, allowing the regime to consolidate power where mere survival becomes a victory.

Contrary to weakening the Iranian regime, US military actions have had the opposite effect. An Iranian reporter notes that the strikes shifted public focus away from mass domestic protests and toward national unity against a foreign aggressor, creating an unintended "rally around the flag" effect.

The conflict did not empower Iran's opposition; it terrorized civilians and justified the installation of a military government. The regime used the war to intensify its crackdown on dissent, making the Iranian people and their democratic aspirations the primary casualties.

The recent conflict and the death of Ayatollah Khamenei have fast-tracked a predicted power shift within Iran. The Revolutionary Guard and military leadership now hold more influence at the expense of the theological establishment, a change that was expected to take a decade to unfold.

Iran is transitioning into a 'Third Islamic Republic,' a phase where the military and security bureaucracy, not the clerics, hold dominant power. This shift marks a state where the military elite controls political and economic levers, bringing Ayatollah Khamenei's long-term project to fruition.

Military strikes on industrial targets, while tactically successful, often energize the targeted population and regime. This creates political backlash that overwhelms the military effects, ultimately making the adversary stronger and more unified, as was seen in Vietnam.

The ongoing war provides the Iranian regime with a pretext for heightened internal security. This allows it to suppress domestic protests and dissent, framing internal control as a necessary measure while managing an external existential threat.

Despite widespread internal protests and instability, history shows that an external attack is one of the few things that can unify the Iranian population. A potential Israeli strike, meant to weaken the regime, could backfire by creating a 'rally 'round the flag' effect that shores up support for the Ayatollah.