The current state of conflict with Iran is a protracted "no war, no peace" situation. While better than all-out war, this stalemate is not a sustainable long-term solution for the region, Iran, or the US, and requires substantive discussions to achieve lasting peace.
A top UAE diplomat argues that Iran's current leadership is in a state of transition following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. After 37 years of centralized rule, a power vacuum exists, with different factions now vying for influence, making the system less stable and predictable.
The recent conflict and the death of Ayatollah Khamenei have fast-tracked a predicted power shift within Iran. The Revolutionary Guard and military leadership now hold more influence at the expense of the theological establishment, a change that was expected to take a decade to unfold.
The UAE's primary goal in building a strong defense was not military posturing, but establishing deterrence. This demonstrated military capability, particularly in intercepting missiles, provided the necessary leverage to open diplomatic channels with Iran from a position of strength.
According to a UAE diplomat, Iran's massive missile attack was a calculated strategy. By targeting the Gulf's civilian infrastructure (95% of targets), Iran aimed to pressure global markets and, by extension, compel Washington and its allies to stop the war.
The UAE sees Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz not as a permanent policy, but as a negotiating position. This leverage is intended for eventual, broader negotiations with the United States, which will ultimately center on Iran's nuclear program.
In an ironic twist, the war with Iran has reinforced the importance of the United States to Gulf nations. Even countries targeted by Iran now recognize an increased need for American partnership, particularly for advanced military equipment, training, and political support.
Anwar Gargash reveals that during the conflict, only 5% of Iranian attacks targeted military installations, while 95% hit economic infrastructure. This suggests Iran used the presence of U.S. bases as a pretext to launch a broader economic attack aimed at creating international pressure.
The UAE's pragmatic, and often criticized, diplomatic relationship with Israel provided direct leverage to facilitate massive humanitarian efforts. The UAE was able to send nearly $4 billion in aid to Gaza, a scale of support that would have been impossible without this direct channel.
The UAE's vision for the Middle East's future is fundamentally economic. Their policy emphasizes de-escalating political conflicts in favor of building influence through technology, free trade, and creating economic opportunities that attract talent from across the Arab world.