Unlike the 2022 protests led by middle-class women over social freedoms, the current unrest is driven by jobless young men—a traditionally pro-regime group—angry about economic collapse. This shift in demographics and motivation makes the government's usual appeasement tactics less effective.
Political violence and extreme polarization are symptoms of deeper economic anxieties. When people feel economically insecure, they retreat into tribal identities and become susceptible to narratives of anger, which can escalate into violence.
The inability for young people to afford assets like housing creates massive inequality and fear. This economic desperation makes them susceptible to populist leaders who redirect their anger towards political opponents, ultimately sparking violence.
The crisis facing young men is fundamentally economic. Their declining viability as providers prevents family formation, a cornerstone of societal stability. This economic frustration leads to anger and radicalization, making the "lonely, broke young man" a uniquely destabilizing force in society.
The root of rising civil unrest and anti-immigrant sentiment is often economic insecurity, not just a clash of cultures. People convert financial anxiety into anger, which is then easily directed at visible, culturally different groups, creating flashpoints that can escalate into violence.
The progression of protest slogans from demanding a vote recount in 2009 ('Where is my vote?') to calling for regime overthrow today ('Death to the supreme leader') indicates a fundamental change. Protestors no longer seek to work within the existing system but aim to dismantle it entirely.
The current Iranian protests are uniquely potent because the regime is at its weakest geopolitically. The loss of regional proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, coupled with key ally Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine, has left the Iranian government more isolated and vulnerable than during any previous wave of unrest.
While US sanctions are a factor, the Iranian currency's freefall is largely due to structural corruption. The economy is dominated by the military and clerical foundations, a political-economic model that stifles growth and fuels public anger—a problem sanctions relief alone cannot solve.
Political alignment is becoming secondary to economic frustration. Voters are responding to candidates who address rising costs, creating unpredictable alliances and fracturing established bases. This dynamic is swamping traditional ideology, forcing both parties to scramble for a new populist message centered on financial well-being.
History demonstrates a direct, causal link between widening inequality and violent societal collapse. When a large portion of the population finds the system unbearable, it leads to events like the French Revolution—a blunt cause-and-effect relationship often sanitized in modern discourse.
Facing severe economic pressure from sanctions and inflation, the Iranian government has relaxed enforcement of the hijab law. This is a calculated concession to appease the population and release social pressure, effectively trading social freedom for economic stability without ceding significant political power.